Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Incremental

Of 67 developers who shipped an Incremental Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 98 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×537 the market median. Revenue is up 275% on the market; 98 games are announced against 48 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 275% on the market, 98 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 67
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.9k → $1.7k → $22k → $3.9k → $360 → $7.5k → $1.3k (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 67
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Top 25% $6.6k (exactly $6,555)
Top 5% $337k (exactly $337,462)
Developers, 2 yr 67
Released games 143
Announced 98
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 275% on the market, supply 155% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG, Incremental; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Idler, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 8,194 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $6.5k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 98 games are announced against 48 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Immortal Family older $13.99 1,213 54% 36k $509k (exactly $509,096) 一起来修仙工作室
恋爱吗?我家猫会后空翻 $9.99 1,508 96% 45k $452k (exactly $451,948) 光循花火工作室
WindStop Strategy $9.99 1,494 78% 45k $448k (exactly $447,752) Xia Start
Path of Idle: Old Gods Rising $9.99 1,160 77% 35k $348k (exactly $347,652) Small Mill, Small Mill
Q-UP $9.99 1,126 93% 34k $337k (exactly $337,462) Everybody House Games
The Captain older $19.99 305 92% 9.2k $183k (exactly $182,908) Sysiac Games
Paper Bride 5 Two Lifetimes older $9.99 606 84% 18k $182k (exactly $181,618) HeartBeat Plus
Bones and Coins $7.99 638 72% 19k $153k (exactly $152,929) Troyd Games
Increlution · EA older $3.99 1,237 85% 37k $148k (exactly $148,069) Gniller
Paper Bride 6 Nightmare $9.99 369 81% 11k $111k (exactly $110,589) HeartBeat Plus
挂机手游模拟器 $2.99 1,111 91% 33k $100k (exactly $99,657) 天光
Legends of Wasteland $6.99 320 62% 9.6k $67k (exactly $67,104) 清友工作室
Thousand Floors $9.99 214 41% 6.4k $64k (exactly $64,136) 琥珀塔
Siegeturtle $4.99 254 86% 7.6k $38k (exactly $38,024) YYZ Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.