Do I ship it?

GamesPerma DeathPerma Death + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Incremental game?

Perma Death + Incremental

Of 32 developers who shipped a Perma Death Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, level with the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $180. Revenue is up 550% on the market; 28 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 550% on the market, 28 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $537 → $2.4k → $2.1k → $479 → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $478 (exactly $478)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,695)
Top 5% $44k (exactly $44,356)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 62
Announced 28
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 550% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death, Incremental; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Dungeon Crawler, RPG
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 763 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $480, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $44k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ancient Cultivatrix $8.99 240 67% 7.2k $65k (exactly $64,728) 五条虾仁(5 shrimps)
Identifile: Desktop Dungeon · EA $9.99 148 91% 4.4k $44k (exactly $44,356) Gearbyte Games
Clicker Arena older $8.99 97 51% 2.9k $26k (exactly $26,161) James Sun
Cocaine Dealer · EA older $3.99 109 80% 3.3k $13k (exactly $13,047) Stone/Spark Games
Neon Ascending $3.99 90 82% 2.7k $11k (exactly $10,773) TheCarmineDepth
Numgeon older $4.99 66 78% 2.0k $9.9k (exactly $9,880) FobTi interactive
Loot Dungeon $6.99 44 54% 1.3k $9.2k (exactly $9,227) Electric Kite
One More 6ix $1.99 147 99% 4.4k $8.8k (exactly $8,776) Crazish Games
Street karate 3 older $4.99 55 80% 1.7k $8.2k (exactly $8,234) Essential Tactics Games
Space Candy older $4.99 47 72% 1.4k $7.0k (exactly $7,036) High and Wide
The Ash Remembers $11.99 18 88% 540 $6.5k (exactly $6,475) Veyr Works
SideQuest Hunters $4.99 35 71% 1.1k $5.2k (exactly $5,240) Paparajote Games
Sweepin' XS $4.99 18 100% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) FungalVoiid
Fortiori $8.40 9 100% 270 $2.3k (exactly $2,268) 79GAMES
Clicker Conquest $4.99 14 78% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) Phillip Hubbard

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.