Do I ship it?

GamesMinigamesMinigames + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Minigames Incremental game?

Minigames + Incremental

Of 22 developers who shipped a Minigames Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×11 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $89k, ×756 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 14 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 14 announced, ×0.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Minigames + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $48k → $479 → $898 (still earning) → $32k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Minigames + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,317)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,905)
Top 5% $90k (exactly $89,961)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 46
Announced 14
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Minigames
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Minigames, Incremental; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 3,010 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $89k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Minigames with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds14 devs · median $53k · 6 announced
  2. + Immersive SimStrong odds15 devs · median $24k · 11 announced
  3. + Life SimStrong odds20 devs · median $11k · 19 announced
  4. + Visual NovelFair20 devs · median $22k · 19 announced
  5. + SandboxFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  6. + RomanceFair14 devs · median $11k · 15 announced
  7. + ManagementFair22 devs · median $7.4k · 15 announced
  8. + ExplorationFair31 devs · median $6.7k · 42 announced
  9. + Action-AdventureFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  10. + Character CustomizationFair27 devs · median $5.7k · 34 announced
  11. + HorrorFair12 devs · median $4.0k · 12 announced
  12. + MagicFair8 devs · median $2.4k · 11 announced

All 58 pairs on the Minigames page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cauldron $14.99 1,678 92% 50k $755k (exactly $754,597) SleepyDad Games
Coin Pusher Casino older $12.50 950 84% 29k $356k (exactly $356,250) TreeNutsGames
Zup! Zero older $1.99 2,572 93% 77k $154k (exactly $153,548) Quiet River
Happy Endings $6.99 429 86% 13k $90k (exactly $89,961) Late Night Studios
Sex Industry XXX $9.99 160 62% 4.8k $48k (exactly $47,952) Lust Desires 🖤
Lured In $7.99 151 84% 4.5k $36k (exactly $36,195) Big Boy Games
Pibcremental $5.99 177 89% 5.3k $32k (exactly $31,807) Arcane Cabinet
Desktop Sex Doll older $9.99 86 55% 2.6k $26k (exactly $25,774) Octo Games
Girls, I just want to get paid! $3.99 183 82% 5.5k $22k (exactly $21,905) LuminatiGames
DGGWare $8.99 66 93% 2.0k $18k (exactly $17,800) Silkworm
Computer Sillow $4.99 104 94% 3.1k $16k (exactly $15,569) JuiceBoxFactory
Meeple Incremental $5.99 39 92% 1.2k $7.0k (exactly $7,008) Simply Artizan
Gelli Fields $2.99 23 86% 690 $2.1k (exactly $2,063) Wonderpond

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.