Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Idler Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Idler

Of 91 developers who shipped an Idler Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 105 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×276 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 105 games are announced against 66 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 105 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 91
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.9k → $15k → $6.9k → $16k → $1.7k → $6.1k → $1.5k (still earning) → $748 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 91
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,153)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,840)
Top 5% $174k (exactly $173,590)
Developers, 2 yr 91
Released games 190
Announced 105
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG, Idler; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Loot
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 10,367 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 7 in 10 of the 38 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 105 games are announced against 66 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Swords & Souls: Neverseen older $14.99 6,077 93% 182k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,827) SoulGame Studio
Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim $24.90 2,938 77% 88k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) Rockbee Team
Retirement Simulator · EA older $13.99 3,757 34% 113k $1.6M (exactly $1,576,813) DoubleThink Studio
再刷一把 PlayAgain older $8.99 4,416 67% 132k $1.2M (exactly $1,190,995) 滑稽工作室
Multiverse Loot Hunter $11.99 2,585 80% 78k $930k (exactly $929,824) 游戏养家工作室
Disgaea 6 Complete older $59.99 387 63% 12k $696k (exactly $696,484) Nippon Ichi Software, Inc.
Path of Idle: Old Gods Rising $9.99 1,160 77% 35k $348k (exactly $347,652) Small Mill, Small Mill
miniBONG older $9.99 881 79% 26k $264k (exactly $264,036) Game Star
Fantasy Idle Dungeon $9.99 736 70% 22k $221k (exactly $220,579) Leaves Games
Crypto Mining Simulator older $4.99 1,419 65% 43k $212k (exactly $212,424) Satosha Nakamoti
无休仙途 $5.99 966 72% 29k $174k (exactly $173,590) GOCORE
Bones and Coins $7.99 638 72% 19k $153k (exactly $152,929) Troyd Games
👑Idle Calibur:Zero💕(选王之剑:零) $10.99 445 80% 13k $147k (exactly $146,716) 绝汪
Paper Bride 6 Nightmare $9.99 369 81% 11k $111k (exactly $110,589) HeartBeat Plus
Cultivation Magic World · EA $12.99 276 78% 8.3k $108k (exactly $107,557) DMG Studio
Loser Got Isekai’d – Sex, Side Jobs, and Odd Tasks $13.99 254 89% 7.6k $107k (exactly $106,604) Morexingame

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.