Do I ship it?

Games › Perma Death › Perma Death + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Idler?

Perma Death + Idler

Of 28 developers who shipped a Perma Death Idler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 18 developers shipped in the last year and 14 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 115% on the market, 14 announced, ×0.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $148 → $119 → $180 → $150 (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $179 (exactly $179)
Top 25% $4.0k (exactly $3,950)
Top 5% $11k (exactly $10,629)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 58
Announced 14
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death, Idler; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, RPG, Roguelite
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 355 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $180, 1 in 4 over $3.9k, 1 in 20 over $10k.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. All of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

outpost4 2026 · $11k The Candle 2025 · $11k Loot Dungeon 2026 · $9.2k RUNNER RTX 2022 · $9.0k 迷途 2020 · EA · $8.1k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
outpost4 $3.99 94 72% 2.8k $11k (exactly $11,252) BananaDogGames
The Candle $4.99 71 91% 2.1k $11k (exactly $10,629) Candle Dev
Loot Dungeon $6.99 44 54% 1.3k $9.2k (exactly $9,227) Electric Kite
RUNNER RTX older $24.99 12 91% 360 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) Piece Of Voxel
迷途 · EA older $9.99 27 66% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) 白雪山工作室
Lost Scale: Part One older $24.99 10 90% 300 $7.5k (exactly $7,497) Danicy
The Ash Remembers $11.99 18 88% 540 $6.5k (exactly $6,475) Veyr Works
SideQuest Hunters $4.99 35 71% 1.1k $5.2k (exactly $5,240) Paparajote Games
Fatal Pursuit $4.99 30 86% 900 $4.5k (exactly $4,491) Oleksii Murashko
TOP TRUCK DRIVER older $9.99 14 64% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Stas Paty9mkin
Spin Forward $3.99 33 78% 990 $4.0k (exactly $3,950) Bean and Pea Studio
Void Salvage $6.99 7 71% 210 $1.5k (exactly $1,468) myradann
Loop My Crank $2.99 14 42% 420 $1.3k (exactly $1,256) GameRoom3 Studio
Epic Idle Quest II $2.99 9 66% 270 $807 (exactly $807) PynkPanther

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.