Do I ship it?

GamesPerma DeathPerma Death + Hidden Object

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Hidden Object?

Perma Death + Hidden Object

Of 34 developers who shipped a Perma Death Hidden Object in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $24k, ×51 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 27 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 27 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Hidden Object
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.3k → $537 → $1.7k → $449 → $299 → $419 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Hidden Object: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $1.7k (exactly $1,731)
Top 5% $24k (exactly $24,276)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 81
Announced 27
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Hidden Object
effort 2 / 10 · high · static scenes with click targets

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death, Hidden Object; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Puzzle, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 589 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $300, 1 in 4 over $1.7k, 1 in 20 over $24k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. Nearly all of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dead Signal older $12.99 1,007 88% 30k $392k (exactly $392,428) Reflect Studios
Spectator older $12.99 113 93% 3.4k $44k (exactly $44,036) Minechan, Neko Machine
The Backrooms Project · EA older $9.99 106 63% 3.2k $32k (exactly $31,768) 3AM Studios
Amber Alert older $4.99 192 63% 5.8k $29k (exactly $28,742) MEATBREAD, VirtualVillain
False Dream older $1.99 467 96% 14k $28k (exactly $27,880) TenkaiGames
Box of Broken Nails $4.99 181 97% 5.4k $27k (exactly $27,096) Cdodge, trushkeen
Sex Apartment 2: Grand Hotel $9.99 81 71% 2.4k $24k (exactly $24,276) Dreamers Workshop
Sex Apartment 💫 $4.99 150 62% 4.5k $22k (exactly $22,455) Dreamers Workshop
Portobugia older $7.99 84 83% 2.5k $20k (exactly $20,135) Bogland Studio
CRYODEATH VR older $24.99 21 85% 630 $16k (exactly $15,744) Kerag Elisaar
MiSa $4.99 58 65% 1.7k $8.7k (exactly $8,683) Hero
The Memory Thieves · EA $6.99 40 80% 1.2k $8.4k (exactly $8,388) Otherside Studio
The Office Killer $9.99 13 92% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) IceMoon Games
Galdia · EA $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Shergaze Castle
FM Skyline's "Reality" $9.99 8 62% 240 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) FM Skyline, George Clanton
Tindark $3.99 19 42% 570 $2.3k (exactly $2,274) Hot Tea Works
Escape from Tung Tung Sahur $1.99 29 62% 870 $1.7k (exactly $1,731) Quad Labs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.