Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Hex Grid

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Hex Grid Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Hex Grid

Of 127 developers who shipped a Hex Grid Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 217 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×5.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×592 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 217 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 217 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Hex Grid
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 127
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $143k → $3.3k → $6.1k → $6.7k → $3.5k → $3.3k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Hex Grid: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 127
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $3.4k (exactly $3,356)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $20,497)
Top 5% $372k (exactly $371,814)
Developers, 2 yr 127
Released games 430
Announced 217
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy, Hex Grid; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 54% positive over 57,439 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $3.4k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 8 in 10 of the 61 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 217 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Sid Meier's Civilization® V older $29.99 128,186 95% 3.8M $115M (exactly $115,328,944) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
HUMANKIND™ older $49.99 22,165 68% 665k $33M (exactly $33,240,850) AMPLITUDE Studios
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ older $39.99 14,047 61% 421k $17M (exactly $16,852,186) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
ENDLESS Legend™ older $29.99 14,413 83% 432k $13M (exactly $12,967,376) AMPLITUDE Studios
Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War older $39.99 8,148 82% 244k $9.8M (exactly $9,775,156) Proxy Studios
For The King II older $24.99 12,708 71% 381k $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) IronOak Games
Armello older $24.99 11,013 82% 330k $8.3M (exactly $8,256,446) League of Geeks
Solasta II · EA $39.99 2,931 75% 88k $3.5M (exactly $3,516,321) Tactical Adventures
The Last Flame $19.99 2,744 85% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) Hotloop
Ascension · EA $19.99 2,437 60% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) Element Game 微元游戏
Psychic Kung Fu Master $19.99 1,723 60% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,033,283) 金十四工作室
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja
Inkshade $19.99 620 87% 19k $372k (exactly $371,814) Studio Vezelle
Disciples: Domination $44.99 218 65% 6.5k $294k (exactly $294,235) Artefacts Studio
Sandwalkers $19.99 490 73% 15k $294k (exactly $293,853) Goblinz Studio
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.