Do I ship it?

Games › Survival › Survival + Hex Grid

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Hex Grid Survival game?

Survival + Hex Grid

Of 22 developers who shipped a Hex Grid Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×468 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 29 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 29 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Hex Grid
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $2.6k → $6.6k → $2.6k → $239 → $10k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Hex Grid: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $29,071)
Top 5% $294k (exactly $293,853)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 60
Announced 29
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Hex Grid; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Exploration, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 3,848 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $290k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

HUMANKIND™ 2021 · $33M Curious Expedition 2 2021 · $2.3M NEO Scavenger 2014 · $2.0M Thea: The Awakening 2015 · $2.0M The Last Flame 2025 · $1.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HUMANKIND™ older $49.99 22,165 68% 665k $33M (exactly $33,240,850) AMPLITUDE Studios
Curious Expedition 2 older $19.99 3,861 88% 116k $2.3M (exactly $2,315,442) Maschinen-Mensch
NEO Scavenger older $14.99 4,437 89% 133k $2.0M (exactly $1,995,319) Blue Bottle Games
Thea: The Awakening older $19.99 3,318 87% 100k $2.0M (exactly $1,989,805) MuHa Games
The Last Flame $19.99 2,744 85% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) Hotloop
As Far As The Eye older $24.99 1,640 73% 49k $1.2M (exactly $1,229,508) Unexpected
Sheltered 2 older $19.99 2,015 45% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,208,396) Unicube
Faeria older $19.99 1,520 83% 46k $912k (exactly $911,544) Abrakam Entertainment SA
Expeditions: Conquistador older $19.99 1,228 77% 37k $736k (exactly $736,432) Logic Artists
Sandwalkers $19.99 490 73% 15k $294k (exactly $293,853) Goblinz Studio
Humanica · EA $14.99 192 93% 5.8k $86k (exactly $86,342) PanfachDev
Folk Emerging $24.99 73 86% 2.2k $55k (exactly $54,728) Curious Dynamics
The Dead Await $12.99 108 67% 3.2k $42k (exactly $42,088) Shotx
ColdRidge $9.99 97 73% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,071) Frog Collective
Mistward $11.99 74 59% 2.2k $27k (exactly $26,618) Sokpop Collective
Xenowars $19.99 31 83% 930 $19k (exactly $18,591) Strategeion Studios
Seedborne Soldiers $11.99 28 89% 840 $10k (exactly $10,072) Hat Wobble Games
ErMa (Early Mammal) $7.99 11 90% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) AlmyriganHero

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.