Games › Shooter › Shooter + Heist
Should I ship a Heist Shooter?
Shooter + Heist
Only 18 developers shipped a Heist Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Star Wars Outlaws, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 62 more are announced, ×5.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $480, ×0.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60; 1 in 20 cleared $25M, ×41018 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 62 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $60 (exactly $60) |
|---|---|
| Median | $479 (exactly $479) |
| Top 25% | $20k (exactly $20,390) |
| Top 5% | $26M (exactly $25,759,120) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 18 |
| Released games | 82 |
| Announced | 62 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 73% positive over 13,869 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $60. 7 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 62 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Dating SimFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + VampiresFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Match 3Fair
- + SnowFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + ArcadeLong shot
- + Score AttackLong shot
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
Comparable games
PAYDAY 2 2013 · $134M 
Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition 2018 · $86M 
Call of Duty®: WWII 2017 · $60M 
PAYDAY 3 2023 · $44M 
METAL GEAR SOLID V: THE PHANTOM PAIN 2015 · $44M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | PAYDAY 2 | older | $9.99 | 445,531 89% | 13M | $134M (exactly $133,525,641) | OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetr… (OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetrack Games) |
| | Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition | older | $39.99 | 71,706 84% | 2.2M | $86M (exactly $86,025,688) | Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxe… (Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxes, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral interactive (Linux)) |
| | Call of Duty®: WWII | older | $59.99 | 33,576 71% | 1.0M | $60M (exactly $60,426,727) | Sledgehammer Games, Raven Software |
| | PAYDAY 3 | older | $29.99 | 49,305 45% | 1.5M | $44M (exactly $44,359,708) | Starbreeze Studios |
| | METAL GEAR SOLID V: THE PHANTOM PAIN | older | $19.99 | 73,137 91% | 2.2M | $44M (exactly $43,860,259) | KONAMI |
 | Just Cause 4 Reloaded | older | $39.64 | 23,358 63% | 701k | $28M (exactly $27,777,334) | Avalanche Studios |
 | Star Wars Outlaws | $69.99 | 12,268 71% | 368k | $26M (exactly $25,759,120) | Massive Entertainment – A Ubisoft Studio | |
 | Sniper Ghost Warrior 3 | older | $19.99 | 15,133 67% | 454k | $9.1M (exactly $9,075,260) | CI Games |
 | PAYDAY™ The Heist | older | $9.99 | 21,870 92% | 656k | $6.6M (exactly $6,554,439) | OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio. |
 | Crime Boss: Rockay City | older | $19.99 | 8,553 68% | 257k | $5.1M (exactly $5,129,234) | INGAME STUDIOS |
 | Jackal | $14.99 | 596 88% | 18k | $268k (exactly $268,021) | Transhuman Design | |
 | Brush Burial: Gutter World | $9.99 | 838 93% | 25k | $251k (exactly $251,149) | Knife Demon Software | |
 | OPG: Clan Wars | $9.99 | 101 74% | 3.0k | $30k (exactly $30,270) | Anarchy Games, Street's Game | |
 | Vendetta Forever | $19.99 | 34 76% | 1.0k | $20k (exactly $20,390) | Meatspace Interactive | |
 | No Knock | $9.99 | 16 50% | 480 | $4.8k (exactly $4,795) | No Knock | |
 | Heist Haven | · EA | $12.99 | 4 0% | 120 | $1.6k (exactly $1,559) | Somehow Games |
 | Street grabbing of territory | $2.99 | 7 100% | 210 | $628 (exactly $628) | Southern Vermilion Bird | |
 | Wild Willy West | $3.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $479 (exactly $479) | Team Sloop | |
 | The Ballad of a True Thug | $4.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $150 (exactly $150) | Aces |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.