Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Gothic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gothic Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Gothic

Only 19 developers shipped a Gothic Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Tenebris: Terra Incognita, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $15k, ×25 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×299 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 39 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 24.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 39 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Gothic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $142k → $12k → $27k → $5.0k (still earning) → $5.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Gothic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $15k (exactly $15,467)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $26,374)
Top 5% $188k (exactly $187,706)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 48
Announced 39
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 180% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Gothic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy; all of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Turn-Based Combat, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Dark, 2D, Hand-drawn
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 1,126 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $15k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Darkest Dungeon® II older $39.99 24,249 74% 727k $29M (exactly $29,091,525) Red Hook Studios
Warhammer 40,000: Chaos Gate - Daemonhunters older $44.99 11,426 76% 343k $15M (exactly $15,421,672) Complex Games
Othercide older $29.99 4,516 82% 135k $4.1M (exactly $4,063,045) Lightbulb Crew
Solium Infernum older $39.99 1,571 88% 47k $1.9M (exactly $1,884,729) League of Geeks
Rogue Lords older $24.99 1,442 71% 43k $1.1M (exactly $1,081,067) Leikir Studio, Cyanide Studio
Shadows of Forbidden Gods older $19.99 1,046 91% 31k $627k (exactly $627,286) Bobby Two Hands
Disciples III: Reincarnation older $9.99 1,309 69% 39k $392k (exactly $392,307) Akella
Immortal Realms: Vampire Wars older $29.99 408 62% 12k $367k (exactly $367,078) Palindrome Interactive
Disciples II: Gallean's Return older $5.99 1,475 83% 44k $265k (exactly $265,058) Strategy First
Tenebris: Terra Incognita $19.99 313 79% 9.4k $188k (exactly $187,706) Phantasmica Studios
Few Nights More $14.99 382 81% 11k $172k (exactly $171,785) Aeterna Ludi
Vambrace: Dungeon Monarch $14.99 61 70% 1.8k $27k (exactly $27,432) Dvora Studio Co. Ltd.
Ex Sanguis · EA $19.99 45 77% 1.4k $27k (exactly $26,986) Lightbulb Crew
RoGlass $9.99 88 98% 2.6k $26k (exactly $26,374) James Castle
RAVENSBURG $14.99 45 95% 1.4k $20k (exactly $20,236) Lilian Duleroux
The Dream Labyrinth $14.99 44 81% 1.3k $20k (exactly $19,787) GGG`s
Summoner's Gambit $7.99 69 52% 2.1k $17k (exactly $16,539) Billion Studio
Demiurges $14.99 36 88% 1.1k $16k (exactly $16,189) Berih
Ashes of Morgravia $11.99 43 67% 1.3k $15k (exactly $15,467) background blur.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.