Do I ship it?

GamesSpace SimSpace Sim + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Space Sim?

Space Sim + Futuristic

Of 124 developers who shipped a Futuristic Space Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 235 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $670k, ×1076 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 235 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 235 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Space Sim + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 124
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $1.3k → $1.1k → $832 → $748 → $90 → $899 (still earning) → $419 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Space Sim + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 124
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $540 (exactly $540)
Top 25% $4.0k (exactly $3,984)
Top 5% $676k (exactly $675,704)
Developers, 2 yr 124
Released games 390
Announced 235
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Space Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Exploration, Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 19,665 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $540, 1 in 4 over $3.9k, 1 in 20 over $670k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 62 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 235 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Space Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DestructionFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair9 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + Tactical RPGFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + WarFair34 devs · median $1.3k · 42 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorFair16 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  6. + SportsFair8 devs · median $479 · 9 announced
  7. + DiplomacyLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  8. + MilitaryPoor odds18 devs · median $6.3k · 39 announced
  9. + Online Co-OpPoor odds18 devs · median $4.9k · 63 announced
  10. + Strategy RPGPoor odds8 devs · median $4.9k · 21 announced
  11. + SandboxPoor odds86 devs · median $4.6k · 213 announced
  12. + Colony SimPoor odds42 devs · median $4.6k · 91 announced

All 114 pairs on the Space Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hardspace: Shipbreaker older $34.99 19,431 89% 583k $20M (exactly $20,396,721) Blackbird Interactive
SpaceEngine · EA older $29.99 15,826 96% 475k $14M (exactly $14,238,652) Cosmographic Software
Void Crew $24.99 6,573 86% 197k $4.9M (exactly $4,927,778) Hutlihut Games
Star Trek: Voyager - Across the Unknown $34.99 4,162 79% 125k $4.4M (exactly $4,368,851) Gamexcite
Star Trucker older $24.99 4,928 77% 148k $3.7M (exactly $3,694,522) Monster and Monster
Starpoint Gemini 2 older $34.99 3,021 70% 91k $3.2M (exactly $3,171,144) Little Green Men Games
Chorus older $24.99 3,876 81% 116k $2.9M (exactly $2,905,837) Deep Silver Fishlabs
Dune: Imperium older $22.99 3,806 94% 114k $2.6M (exactly $2,624,998) Dire Wolf
Angels Fall First $17.99 3,835 81% 115k $2.1M (exactly $2,069,749) Strangely Interactive Ltd
Industries of Titan older $29.99 1,553 61% 47k $1.4M (exactly $1,397,234) Brace Yourself Games
Farlands $17.99 1,628 89% 49k $879k (exactly $878,632) JanduSoft, Eric Rodríguez
Solargene $34.99 777 77% 23k $816k (exactly $815,617) Alexander Semenov
Approximately Up $24.99 995 93% 30k $746k (exactly $745,952) Approximately Games
Solar Expanse - Space Exploration Manager · EA $17.99 1,252 87% 38k $676k (exactly $675,704) SpaceOps
Space for Sale $19.99 140 50% 4.2k $84k (exactly $83,958) Mirage Game Studios
Outlive 25 $11.99 204 93% 6.1k $73k (exactly $73,379) Continuum Entertainment
Utopia Colony $16.99 99 63% 3.0k $50k (exactly $50,460) GridSky Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.