Games › Perma Death › Perma Death + Futuristic
Should I ship a Futuristic Perma Death game?
Perma Death + Futuristic
Of 48 developers who shipped a Futuristic Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 106 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $750, ×1.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $44k, ×94 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 106 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $178 (exactly $178) |
|---|---|
| Median | $748 (exactly $748) |
| Top 25% | $6.3k (exactly $6,290) |
| Top 5% | $44k (exactly $44,488) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 48 |
| Released games | 151 |
| Announced | 106 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Perma Death
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Futuristic
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Perma Death; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Procedural Generation, Shooter
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Top-Down
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 1,505 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 106 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LGBTQ+Strong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + Creature CollectorFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + PiratesFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + Interactive FictionFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Time ManagementFair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + 3D PlatformerFair
Comparable games
XCOM: Enemy Unknown 2012 · $18M 
Age of Wonders: Planetfall 2019 · $4.3M 
Deadlink 2023 · $2.2M 
Oblivion Override 2024 · $913k 
Sky Rogue 2017 · $635k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | XCOM: Enemy Unknown | older | $14.99 | 40,345 93% | 1.2M | $18M (exactly $18,143,146) | Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Linux) |
| | Age of Wonders: Planetfall | older | $29.99 | 4,758 80% | 143k | $4.3M (exactly $4,280,773) | Triumph Studios |
| | Deadlink | older | $24.99 | 2,871 90% | 86k | $2.2M (exactly $2,152,389) | Gruby Entertainment |
| | Oblivion Override | older | $17.99 | 1,692 90% | 51k | $913k (exactly $913,172) | Humble Mill |
| | Sky Rogue | older | $19.99 | 1,059 92% | 32k | $635k (exactly $635,082) | Fractal Phase |
 | Orbital Bullet – The 360° Rogue-lite | older | $16.99 | 601 82% | 18k | $306k (exactly $306,330) | SmokeStab |
 | Templar Battleforce | older | $9.99 | 931 92% | 28k | $279k (exactly $279,021) | Trese Brothers |
 | NeuroVoider | older | $13.99 | 492 77% | 15k | $206k (exactly $206,492) | Flying Oak Games |
 | Sublevel Zero Redux | older | $14.99 | 448 85% | 13k | $201k (exactly $201,466) | Sigtrap |
 | For The Warp | older | $14.99 | 434 72% | 13k | $195k (exactly $195,170) | Massive Galaxy Studios |
 | UNDERWARD | $9.99 | 593 73% | 18k | $178k (exactly $177,722) | INTENSE | |
 | DISORDER | $29.99 | 123 50% | 3.7k | $111k (exactly $110,663) | GRUMPY | |
 | Void Marauders | $13.99 | 106 77% | 3.2k | $44k (exactly $44,488) | Autarca | |
 | Cowboy 3030 | $14.99 | 96 87% | 2.9k | $43k (exactly $43,171) | Soy Boy Games | |
 | Corebreaker | · EA | $7.99 | 161 92% | 4.8k | $39k (exactly $38,592) | aQuadiun |
 | Planet Killer | $12.99 | 94 79% | 2.8k | $37k (exactly $36,632) | Talisman One Studio | |
 | Barrel Roll | $4.99 | 188 96% | 5.6k | $28k (exactly $28,144) | Barrel Roll | |
 | Ammo and Oxygen | $14.99 | 53 64% | 1.6k | $24k (exactly $23,834) | Juvty Worlds | |
 | Lilac 0 | $11.49 | 68 94% | 2.0k | $23k (exactly $23,440) | Bullet Prince, Victor Pouderoux | |
 | Son and Bone | $29.99 | 23 56% | 690 | $21k (exactly $20,693) | TeamKill Media |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.