Do I ship it?

GamesOnline Co-OpOnline Co-Op + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Online Co-Op game?

Online Co-Op + Futuristic

Of 82 developers who shipped a Futuristic Online Co-Op game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 233 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×2.1 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $9.1M, ×6089 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 233 games are announced against 48 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 233 announced, ×4.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Online Co-Op + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 82
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $117k → $4.9k → $0 → $16k → $20k → $5.4k → $1.2k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Online Co-Op + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 82
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,144)
Top 25% $43k (exactly $43,171)
Top 5% $9.1M (exactly $9,121,097)
Developers, 2 yr 82
Released games 259
Announced 233
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 30%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Online Co-Op
effort 8 / 10 · low · netcode, lobbies and state sync across machines
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Online Co-Op; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Co-op, Shooter
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 464,417 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $43k, 1 in 20 over $9.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 6 in 10 of the 53 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 233 games are announced against 48 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Online Co-Op with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Bullet HeavenStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair31 devs · median $14k · 32 announced
  3. + TypingFair16 devs · median $5.0k · 12 announced
  4. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Point & ClickFair28 devs · median $1.7k · 34 announced
  6. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds29 devs · median $443k · 70 announced
  7. + TransportationPoor odds14 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds11 devs · median $346k · 16 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  10. + World War IIPoor odds10 devs · median $188k · 18 announced
  11. + City BuilderPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds20 devs · median $95k · 18 announced

All 211 pairs on the Online Co-Op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
REMATCH $29.99 39,905 70% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,902,528) Sloclap
Call of Duty®: Black Ops II older $39.99 23,307 86% 699k $28M (exactly $27,961,408) Treyarch
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine - Anniversary Edition older $39.99 18,455 92% 554k $22M (exactly $22,140,464) Relic Entertainment
Clone Drone in the Danger Zone older $19.99 36,084 96% 1.1M $22M (exactly $21,639,575) Doborog Games
Call of Duty®: Ghosts older $39.99 12,976 66% 389k $16M (exactly $15,567,307) Infinity Ward
Call of Duty®: Advanced Warfare - Gold Edition older $39.99 11,103 64% 333k $13M (exactly $13,320,269) Sledgehammer Games, Raven Software
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War II - Anniversary Edition (Classic) older $49.99 8,084 85% 243k $12M (exactly $12,123,575) Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive… (Relic Entertainment, Feral Interactive (Mac/Linux))
Call of Duty®: Black Ops 7 $69.99 4,344 37% 130k $9.1M (exactly $9,121,097) Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High… (Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Sledgehammer Games, Infinity Ward, Activision Shanghai, Demonware)
MechWarrior 5: Clans $29.99 5,565 74% 167k $5.0M (exactly $5,006,830) Piranha Games Inc.
Void Crew $24.99 6,573 86% 197k $4.9M (exactly $4,927,778) Hutlihut Games
POPUCOM $19.99 3,432 87% 103k $2.1M (exactly $2,058,170) Hypergryph
FREEDOM WARS Remastered $39.99 1,211 69% 36k $1.5M (exactly $1,452,837) Dimps Corporation
ICBM: Escalation $29.99 1,248 86% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) SoftWarWare

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.