Do I ship it?

Games › FPS › FPS + Wargame

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Wargame FPS?

FPS + Wargame

Of 62 developers who shipped a Wargame FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 136 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×0.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×1218 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 136 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 136 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Wargame
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 62
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $748 → $386 → $629 → $5.4k → $1.2k → $899 → $1.3k (still earning) → $18k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Wargame: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 62
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $18,217)
Top 5% $1.8M (exactly $1,824,433)
Developers, 2 yr 62
Released games 244
Announced 136
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS, Wargame; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Combat
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 102,758 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 7 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 136 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Squad 2020 · $217M WARDOGS 2026 · EA · $70M Bodycam 2024 · EA · $60M Chivalry 2 2022 · $56M Verdun 2015 · $52M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Bodycam · EA older $33.32 60,179 80% 1.8M $60M (exactly $60,154,928) Reissad Studio
Chivalry 2 older $39.99 46,707 79% 1.4M $56M (exactly $56,034,388) Torn Banner Studios
Verdun older $59.99 28,967 87% 869k $52M (exactly $52,131,910) BlackMill Games
Rising Storm 2: Vietnam older $24.99 42,381 87% 1.3M $32M (exactly $31,773,036) Antimatter Games, Tripwire Interactive
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Isonzo older $39.99 14,434 85% 433k $17M (exactly $17,316,470) BlackMill Games
Holdfast: Nations At War older $19.99 26,624 90% 799k $16M (exactly $15,966,413) Anvil Game Studios
Six Days in Fallujah · EA older $39.99 13,012 79% 390k $16M (exactly $15,610,496) Highwire Games
Gallipoli $29.99 4,015 78% 120k $3.6M (exactly $3,612,296) BlackMill Games
Rising Front $14.99 4,057 88% 122k $1.8M (exactly $1,824,433) Sandstorm Studios Inc.
'83 · EA $29.99 1,228 65% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832) Blue Dot Games
Starship Troopers: Ultimate Bug War! $24.99 1,352 92% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,013,594) Auroch Digital
Vietnam War · EA $14.99 1,704 84% 51k $766k (exactly $766,289) Thorium Game Lab
Heroes of Valor · EA $14.99 1,324 90% 40k $595k (exactly $595,403) Fancy Cat Interactive
Dagger Directive $19.99 802 83% 24k $481k (exactly $480,959) Arcane Alpacas LLC
EXFIL · EA $19.99 302 67% 9.1k $181k (exactly $181,109) Tiny Leviathan

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.