Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Female Protagonist

Of 145 developers who shipped a Female-Led Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 250 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.0k, ×9.5 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $630k, ×1009 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 250 games are announced against 75 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 250 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 145
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $13k → $6.5k → $6.2k → $2.7k → $10k → $7.3k (still earning) → $839 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 145
Bottom 30% $955 (exactly $955)
Median $6.0k (exactly $5,992)
Top 25% $54k (exactly $54,206)
Top 5% $634k (exactly $633,866)
Developers, 2 yr 145
Released games 454
Announced 250
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 18,601 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $6.0k, 1 in 4 over $54k, 1 in 20 over $630k.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 8 in 10 of the 87 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 250 games are announced against 75 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Pathfinder: Kingmaker — Enhanced Plus Edition older $19.99 28,146 77% 844k $17M (exactly $16,879,156) Owlcat Games
Valkyria Chronicles 4 Complete Edition older $49.99 5,691 86% 171k $8.5M (exactly $8,534,793) SEGA
Symphony of War: The Nephilim Saga older $19.99 12,880 94% 386k $7.7M (exactly $7,724,136) Dancing Dragon Games
WitchSpring R older $34.99 6,858 95% 206k $7.2M (exactly $7,198,843) KIWIWALKS
TROUBLESHOOTER: Abandoned Children older $24.99 9,464 93% 284k $7.1M (exactly $7,095,161) Dandylion
Expeditions: Rome older $44.99 5,156 86% 155k $7.0M (exactly $6,959,053) Logic Artists
Valkyria Chronicles™ older $19.99 10,832 89% 325k $6.5M (exactly $6,495,950) SEGA
Age of Wonders III older $29.99 7,020 81% 211k $6.3M (exactly $6,315,894) Triumph Studios
XCOM®: Chimera Squad older $9.99 20,602 71% 618k $6.2M (exactly $6,174,419) Firaxis Games
StarVaders $24.99 3,760 97% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) Pengonauts
Songs of Silence $29.99 2,367 79% 71k $2.1M (exactly $2,129,590) Chimera Entertainment
The Great Villainess: Strategy of Lily $29.99 1,529 85% 46k $1.4M (exactly $1,375,641) Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playgr… (Alliance Arts, One or Eight, WSS Playground)
Artis Impact $18.99 2,308 84% 69k $1.3M (exactly $1,314,868) Mas
Death Howl $19.99 1,301 92% 39k $780k (exactly $780,210) The Outer Zone
Cauldron $14.99 1,678 92% 50k $755k (exactly $754,597) SleepyDad Games
Journey of Realm:Dawn Dew $10.99 2,233 97% 67k $736k (exactly $736,220) 葱色兔兔/Scallion Rabbit
Dream of Corpse Lady $9.99 2,115 93% 63k $634k (exactly $633,866) HT3 Studio
Fantasy Maiden Wars - DREAM OF THE STRAY DREAMER - $34.99 582 98% 17k $611k (exactly $610,925) さんぼん堂
STARDUST: Wish of Witch $24.99 728 81% 22k $546k (exactly $545,782) Kniv Studio Co., Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.