Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Fantasy

Of 707 developers who shipped a Fantasy Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,300 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×3.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $500k, ×805 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 1,300 games are announced against 410 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 1,300 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 707
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.8k → $11k → $4.2k → $4.3k → $4.2k → $3.7k → $1.0k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 707
Bottom 30% $386 (exactly $386)
Median $2.0k (exactly $2,030)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,686)
Top 5% $506k (exactly $505,631)
Developers, 2 yr 707
Released games 2,002
Announced 1,300
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 59,747 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $500k.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. 8 in 10 of the 371 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,300 games are announced against 410 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS older $39.99 63,110 82% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,713,067) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
South Park™: The Stick of Truth™ older $29.99 60,770 97% 1.8M $55M (exactly $54,674,769) Obsidian Entertainment
Metaphor: ReFantazio $69.99 25,224 89% 757k $53M (exactly $52,962,833) ATLUS
Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader older $49.99 33,701 87% 1.0M $51M (exactly $50,541,390) Owlcat Games
Divinity: Original Sin - Enhanced Edition older $39.99 27,485 88% 825k $33M (exactly $32,973,754) Larian Studios
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles $49.99 5,673 89% 170k $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) Square Enix
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Solasta II · EA $39.99 2,931 75% 88k $3.5M (exactly $3,516,321) Tactical Adventures
Sunderfolk $49.99 1,890 93% 57k $2.8M (exactly $2,834,433) Secret Door
The World of Kungfu: Dragon and Eagle $17.99 4,595 67% 138k $2.5M (exactly $2,479,922) ChillyRoom
Songs of Silence $29.99 2,367 79% 71k $2.1M (exactly $2,129,590) Chimera Entertainment
The Last Flame $19.99 2,744 85% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) Hotloop
Ascension · EA $19.99 2,437 60% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) Element Game 微元游戏
Die in the Dungeon $14.99 3,239 92% 97k $1.5M (exactly $1,456,578) ATICO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.