Do I ship it?

GamesOnline Co-OpOnline Co-Op + Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Fantasy Online Co-Op game?

Online Co-Op + Fantasy

Of 260 developers who shipped a Fantasy Online Co-Op game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 717 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.4k, ×2.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $5.7M, ×3867 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 717 games are announced against 165 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 717 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Online Co-Op + Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 260
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $10k → $130k → $17k → $3.9k → $2.7k → $21k → $2.1k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Online Co-Op + Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 260
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.4k (exactly $3,356)
Top 25% $90k (exactly $89,704)
Top 5% $5.8M (exactly $5,793,351)
Developers, 2 yr 260
Released games 807
Announced 717
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 28%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Online Co-Op
effort 8 / 10 · low · netcode, lobbies and state sync across machines
Fantasy
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Online Co-Op; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Co-op, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 68% positive over 414,333 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.4k, 1 in 4 over $89k, 1 in 20 over $5.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 141 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 717 games are announced against 165 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Online Co-Op with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Bullet HeavenStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair31 devs · median $14k · 32 announced
  3. + TypingFair16 devs · median $5.0k · 12 announced
  4. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Point & ClickFair28 devs · median $1.7k · 34 announced
  6. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds29 devs · median $443k · 70 announced
  7. + TransportationPoor odds14 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds11 devs · median $346k · 16 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  10. + World War IIPoor odds10 devs · median $188k · 18 announced
  11. + City BuilderPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds20 devs · median $95k · 18 announced

All 211 pairs on the Online Co-Op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ELDEN RING older $59.99 831,470 93% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) FromSoftware, Inc.
Baldur's Gate 3 older $59.99 755,010 96% 23M $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) Larian Studios
Monster Hunter Wilds $39.99 200,984 52% 6.0M $241M (exactly $241,120,505) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Total War: WARHAMMER III older $59.99 104,822 71% 3.1M $189M (exactly $188,648,153) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
Split Fiction $49.99 78,378 97% 2.4M $118M (exactly $117,543,487) Hazelight Studios
Enshrouded · EA older $39.99 93,426 85% 2.8M $112M (exactly $112,083,172) Keen Games GmbH
FOR HONOR™ older $29.99 108,492 69% 3.3M $98M (exactly $97,610,252) Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Toronto, Blue Byte)
MONSTER HUNTER RISE older $39.99 79,847 84% 2.4M $96M (exactly $95,792,446) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Conan Exiles Enhanced older $39.99 79,741 78% 2.4M $96M (exactly $95,665,278) Funcom, Inflexion Games
Diablo® IV older $49.99 58,668 69% 1.8M $88M (exactly $87,984,400) Blizzard Entertainment, Inc.
RuneScape: Dragonwilds $29.99 28,071 81% 842k $25M (exactly $25,255,479) Jagex Ltd
FANTASY LIFE i: The Girl Who Steals Time $59.99 11,771 91% 353k $21M (exactly $21,184,269) LEVEL5 Inc.
Wayfinder $24.99 25,104 60% 753k $19M (exactly $18,820,469) Airship Syndicate
Mistfall Hunter $24.99 16,045 53% 481k $12M (exactly $12,028,936) Bellring Games
Shape of Dreams $24.99 15,769 89% 473k $12M (exactly $11,822,019) Lizard Smoothie
Fellowship · EA $24.99 15,357 74% 461k $12M (exactly $11,513,143) Chief Rebel
Warhammer 40,000: Dawn of War - Definitive Edition $29.99 12,286 85% 369k $11M (exactly $11,053,714) Relic Entertainment
DragonSword : Awakening $29.99 10,568 90% 317k $9.5M (exactly $9,508,030) Hound13 Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.