Do I ship it?

Games › Perma Death › Perma Death + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Perma Death game?

Perma Death + Dystopian

Of 31 developers who shipped a Dystopian Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 59 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×657 the market median. Revenue is up 545% on the market; 59 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 545% on the market, 59 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $300 → $190k → $210 → $1.2k → $4.8k → $210 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Perma Death + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $12,142)
Top 5% $312k (exactly $311,860)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 74
Announced 59
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 545% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Perma Death; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Pixel Graphics, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 3,825 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $360, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 59 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Deadlink 2023 · $2.2M Pronoun Palace 2026 · $743k Ascend to ZERO 2026 · $312k PEPPERED: an existential platformer 2025 · $271k Let's! Revolution! 2023 · $190k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deadlink older $24.99 2,871 90% 86k $2.2M (exactly $2,152,389) Gruby Entertainment
Pronoun Palace $19.84 1,249 99% 37k $743k (exactly $743,405) Cadence Petersen, Hazel Fackler
Ascend to ZERO $11.99 867 82% 26k $312k (exactly $311,860) Flyway Games, Inc.
PEPPERED: an existential platformer $14.99 603 96% 18k $271k (exactly $271,169) Mostly Games
Let's! Revolution! older $19.99 317 92% 9.5k $190k (exactly $190,105) BUCK Games, Antfood
Tankenstein · EA $17.99 238 89% 7.1k $128k (exactly $128,449) Landship Games LTD
Fallback older $9.99 299 87% 9.0k $90k (exactly $89,610) Endroad
Pestis older $24.99 88 77% 2.6k $66k (exactly $65,974) DIEDEMOR STUDIO GAMES
Gearshifters older $24.99 85 80% 2.6k $64k (exactly $63,724) Red Phantom Games
XO · EA older $19.99 82 87% 2.5k $49k (exactly $49,175) Jumpdrive Studios
FEAR OF FAITH · EA $9.99 117 78% 3.5k $35k (exactly $35,065) UNBREAKABLE ARK
Dreadline: Net Quota $5.99 154 68% 4.6k $28k (exactly $27,674) Mana Brigade
Little Girl On Earth Asking Why She Asking Why $0.99 525 93% 16k $16k (exactly $15,592) senpi, Nolly
Rangedrifter · EA $14.99 27 100% 810 $12k (exactly $12,142) Max Schmidt
Star Mining Co. $8.99 29 82% 870 $7.8k (exactly $7,821) Barney Whiteman
CLAWPUNK $9.99 16 93% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) Kittens in Timespace

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.