Do I ship it?

GamesOnline Co-OpOnline Co-Op + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Online Co-Op game?

Online Co-Op + Dystopian

Of 30 developers who shipped a Dystopian Online Co-Op game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 84 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.8k, ×5.9 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×1138 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 84 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 84 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Online Co-Op + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $227k → $13k → $150k → $5.3k → $13k (still earning) → $3.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Online Co-Op + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Median $8.8k (exactly $8,805)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $35,065)
Top 5% $1.7M (exactly $1,704,094)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 70
Announced 84
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Online Co-Op
effort 8 / 10 · low · netcode, lobbies and state sync across machines
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Online Co-Op; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Co-op, PvE
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 24,334 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $8.8k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 6 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 84 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Online Co-Op with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Bullet HeavenStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Escape RoomFair31 devs · median $14k · 32 announced
  3. + TypingFair16 devs · median $5.0k · 12 announced
  4. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Point & ClickFair28 devs · median $1.7k · 34 announced
  6. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds29 devs · median $443k · 70 announced
  7. + TransportationPoor odds14 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds11 devs · median $346k · 16 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds72 devs · median $217k · 139 announced
  10. + World War IIPoor odds10 devs · median $188k · 18 announced
  11. + City BuilderPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds20 devs · median $95k · 18 announced

All 211 pairs on the Online Co-Op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine - Anniversary Edition older $39.99 18,455 92% 554k $22M (exactly $22,140,464) Relic Entertainment
Watch Dogs®: Legion older $59.99 11,891 56% 357k $21M (exactly $21,400,233) Ubisoft Toronto
Le Mans Ultimate $39.99 15,068 79% 452k $18M (exactly $18,077,080) Studio 397
Homefront®: The Revolution older $19.99 11,393 63% 342k $6.8M (exactly $6,832,382) Dambuster Studios
HUNTDOWN older $19.99 4,059 94% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,434,182) Easy Trigger Games
ANEURISM IV $9.99 5,686 75% 171k $1.7M (exactly $1,704,094) Vellocet
FREEDOM WARS Remastered $39.99 1,211 69% 36k $1.5M (exactly $1,452,837) Dimps Corporation
USAC: Code Breach older $14.99 1,067 91% 32k $480k (exactly $479,830) Questions Factory
Cargo Hunters · EA $19.99 739 82% 22k $443k (exactly $443,178) Order Of Meta
JUNKPUNK · EA older $15.99 641 60% 19k $307k (exactly $307,488) SCT
BULT: Hunting simulator · EA $9.99 869 87% 26k $260k (exactly $260,439) Nordrise
La Quimera · EA $29.99 167 51% 5.0k $150k (exactly $150,250) Reburn
Necrosis: Dawn of Dread $9.99 133 85% 4.0k $40k (exactly $39,860) Mike Schroder, Swole Software
FEAR OF FAITH · EA $9.99 117 78% 3.5k $35k (exactly $35,065) UNBREAKABLE ARK
Subterranauts $4.99 190 76% 5.7k $28k (exactly $28,443) Red Basket Games
Dreadline: Net Quota $5.99 154 68% 4.6k $28k (exactly $27,674) Mana Brigade

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.