Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Strategy › Turn-Based Strategy + Detective

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Detective Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Detective

Only 16 developers shipped a Detective Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, MeteoriteFall, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150, ×0.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90. 40 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper, while revenue is up 1350% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 1350% on the market, 40 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Detective
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Detective: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $148 (exactly $148)
Top 25% $3.4k (exactly $3,429)
Top 5% $254k (exactly $253,695)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 42
Announced 40
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1350% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Detective
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Grid-Based Movement, RPG
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 841 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $150, 1 in 4 over $3.4k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Persona 5 Royal 2022 · $165M Persona 4 Golden 2020 · $43M Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition 2019 · $16M This Is the Police 2 2018 · $2.4M Clue/Cluedo: Classic Edition 2018 · $1.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Persona 5 Royal older $59.99 91,682 96% 2.8M $165M (exactly $165,000,095) ATLUS
Persona 4 Golden older $19.99 71,306 97% 2.1M $43M (exactly $42,762,208) ATLUS
Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition older $49.99 10,810 89% 324k $16M (exactly $16,211,757) h.a.n.d., Inc., Media.Vision Inc.
This Is the Police 2 older $14.99 5,330 77% 160k $2.4M (exactly $2,396,901) Weappy Studio
Clue/Cluedo: Classic Edition older $16.99 3,096 88% 93k $1.6M (exactly $1,578,031) Marmalade Game Studio Ltd
MeteoriteFall $12.99 651 78% 20k $254k (exactly $253,695) ST studio
Company of Crime older $19.99 143 51% 4.3k $86k (exactly $85,757) Resistance Games
Slaughter Horse 2 · EA older $5.99 395 96% 12k $71k (exactly $70,982) Catfood McFly
The Magister older $14.99 103 91% 3.1k $46k (exactly $46,319) Nerdook Productions
2 Fights in 2 Tight Spaces · EA $12.99 115 84% 3.5k $45k (exactly $44,816) Ground Shatter
Augmented Empire $7.99 25 88% 750 $6.0k (exactly $5,992) Coatsink
Detective 26 $7.62 15 80% 450 $3.4k (exactly $3,429) TestOneDev
Trailmarks $8.99 12 91% 360 $3.2k (exactly $3,236) Trailmarks HQ
Hexa's Gone $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) DevloCore
17 Steps · EA $3.99 10 100% 300 $1.2k (exactly $1,197) SmilingMiles
Warrior's Dilemma $0.99 5 80% 150 $148 (exactly $148) Happy Hippocampus
Silent Howl $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Yorbi
The King of Go $1.99 2 100% 60 $119 (exactly $119) Laying Game

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.