Do I ship it?

GamesPerma DeathPerma Death + Detective

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Detective Perma Death game?

Perma Death + Detective

Only 12 developers shipped a Detective Perma Death game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Vegangsters, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.2k against a market of $480. 16 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 16 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Perma Death + Detective
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Perma Death + Detective: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $298 (exactly $298)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,206)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,597)
Top 5% $27k (exactly $26,889)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 29
Announced 16
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Detective
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Perma Death
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 174 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $26k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Strong odds15 devs · median $55k · 7 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair65 devs · median $8.1k · 66 announced
  4. + Creature CollectorFair30 devs · median $5.3k · 33 announced
  5. + Mystery DungeonFair27 devs · median $2.7k · 29 announced
  6. + PiratesFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 14 announced
  7. + Traditional RoguelikeFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  8. + Interactive FictionFair27 devs · median $959 · 28 announced
  9. + Precision PlatformerFair46 devs · median $719 · 31 announced
  10. + Time ManagementFair49 devs · median $539 · 66 announced
  11. + Visual NovelFair21 devs · median $538 · 18 announced
  12. + 3D PlatformerFair36 devs · median $537 · 36 announced

All 164 pairs on the Perma Death page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Scrutinized older $9.99 1,313 89% 39k $394k (exactly $393,506) Reflect Studios
Agarta older $2.99 498 71% 15k $45k (exactly $44,671) FF Digital
Amber Alert older $4.99 192 63% 5.8k $29k (exactly $28,742) MEATBREAD, VirtualVillain
Vegangsters $12.99 69 92% 2.1k $27k (exactly $26,889) Poison Pill Games
Long Live Caesar $9.99 51 78% 1.5k $15k (exactly $15,285) Yury Khovansky, Vladislavs Viktorovs
Halt older $4.99 60 70% 1.8k $9.0k (exactly $8,982) Nightmare Ink Publishing
TradingLife · EA $11.99 10 100% 300 $3.6k (exactly $3,597) Fun(ctor) Studio
Amber Alert TOTAL VR $5.99 19 47% 570 $3.4k (exactly $3,414) MEATBREAD, VirtualVillain
Martha older $3.99 27 62% 810 $3.2k (exactly $3,232) Affordable Cat
Aberration Analyst older $4.99 17 82% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Schmidt Workshops
Overton $14.99 4 75% 120 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) Casey Blase
201 - The Bad Number $4.02 10 80% 300 $1.2k (exactly $1,206) Pavel Kopylov
Anomaly Observer · EA $7.99 2 50% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Letalis Entertainment
Later Elevator $3.99 3 100% 90 $359 (exactly $359) blinyadebil
Case Sealed · EA $1.99 5 80% 150 $298 (exactly $298) Mergen Games
Dark Manor $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) GearheadFoxGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.