Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Demons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Demon Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Demons

Of 45 developers who shipped a Demon Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 86 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×190 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 86 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 86 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Demons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 45
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $102k → $1.8k → $12k → $4.3k → $4.5k → $599 → $119 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Demons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 45
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,593)
Top 5% $119k (exactly $119,195)
Developers, 2 yr 45
Released games 110
Announced 86
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Demons
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Roguelike, Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 9,795 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $600, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 86 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Warhammer 40,000: Chaos Gate - Daemonhunters older $44.99 11,426 76% 343k $15M (exactly $15,421,672) Complex Games
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance older $59.99 7,858 91% 236k $14M (exactly $14,142,043) ATLUS
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Shin Megami Tensei III Nocturne HD Remaster older $49.99 3,989 87% 120k $6.0M (exactly $5,982,303) ATLUS
Disgaea PC older $19.99 4,296 87% 129k $2.6M (exactly $2,576,311) Nippon Ichi Software, Inc.
Hard West 2 older $29.99 2,717 80% 82k $2.4M (exactly $2,444,485) Ice Code Games
Solium Infernum older $39.99 1,571 88% 47k $1.9M (exactly $1,884,729) League of Geeks
Wizardry: Proving Grounds of the Mad Overlord older $34.99 1,209 77% 36k $1.3M (exactly $1,269,087) Digital Eclipse
HellSlave II: Judgment of the Archon $19.99 316 77% 9.5k $190k (exactly $189,505) Ars Goetia
Runeborn $13.99 284 80% 8.5k $119k (exactly $119,195) iDream Interactive
Married Into Hell $11.99 265 80% 8.0k $95k (exactly $95,320) WorkNite Games
Monster Girls and the Mysterious Adventure Remastered Edition $9.99 103 94% 3.1k $31k (exactly $30,869) NEKOTOKAGE GAMES
Makai Agito $9.99 72 94% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,578) Gumi Bytes, Dani Sugimoto-Lee
Flocking Hell $9.99 45 93% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) Sextant Studios
Escape the Dynasty · EA $9.99 33 75% 990 $9.9k (exactly $9,890) CoolStar Games
Soul Scar $9.99 21 100% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) Wolfs Moon Studios
Eternal Exodus $19.99 9 33% 270 $5.4k (exactly $5,397) Fordesoft

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.