Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Strategy › Turn-Based Strategy + Deckbuilding

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Deckbuilding Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Deckbuilding

Of 501 developers who shipped a Deckbuilding Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 982 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $490k, ×794 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 982 games are announced against 324 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 982 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Deckbuilding
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 501
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $40k → $8.4k → $7.3k → $6.6k → $5.4k → $1.7k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Deckbuilding: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 501
Bottom 30% $360 (exactly $360)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,697)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $24,850)
Top 5% $498k (exactly $498,351)
Developers, 2 yr 501
Released games 956
Announced 982
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy, Deckbuilding; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 39,244 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $490k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 216 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 982 games are announced against 324 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Balatro 2024 · $72M Library Of Ruina 2021 · $37M Marvel's Midnight Suns 2022 · $31M Monster Train 2020 · $15M Gloomhaven 2021 · $14M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Balatro older $14.99 160,715 97% 4.8M $72M (exactly $72,273,536) LocalThunk
Library Of Ruina older $29.99 40,605 94% 1.2M $37M (exactly $36,532,318) ProjectMoon
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
Monster Train older $24.99 19,950 95% 599k $15M (exactly $14,956,515) Shiny Shoe
Gloomhaven older $34.99 13,628 82% 409k $14M (exactly $14,305,312) Flaming Fowl Studios, Saber Interactive
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Across the Obelisk older $19.99 10,689 80% 321k $6.4M (exactly $6,410,193) Dreamsite Games
Wildfrost older $19.99 8,175 82% 245k $4.9M (exactly $4,902,548) Deadpan Games, Gaziter
Backpack Hero older $19.99 7,423 85% 223k $4.5M (exactly $4,451,573) Jaspel
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
StarVaders $24.99 3,760 97% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) Pengonauts
Dungeon Clawler $14.99 3,716 88% 111k $1.7M (exactly $1,671,085) Stray Fawn Studio
RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike $11.99 4,239 82% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768) Doraccoon
Die in the Dungeon $14.99 3,239 92% 97k $1.5M (exactly $1,456,578) ATICO
Rebellion GODSOUL: Awakening · EA $17.99 2,458 85% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583) U-Secret Studio
Cross Blitz $22.99 1,557 74% 47k $1.1M (exactly $1,073,863) Tako Boy Studios LLC
Commander Quest $11.99 2,804 74% 84k $1.0M (exactly $1,008,599) Flyway Games, Inc.
Decktamer $15.99 2,069 86% 62k $992k (exactly $992,499) Horizon Edge

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.