Do I ship it?

Games › Strategy RPG › Strategy RPG + Deckbuilding

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Deckbuilding Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Deckbuilding

Of 124 developers who shipped a Deckbuilding Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 221 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $490k, ×794 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 221 games are announced against 79 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 221 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Deckbuilding
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 124
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.6k → $54k → $11k → $15k → $19k → $4.1k → $1.1k (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Deckbuilding: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 124
Bottom 30% $390 (exactly $390)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,248)
Top 25% $42k (exactly $42,085)
Top 5% $498k (exactly $498,351)
Developers, 2 yr 124
Released games 255
Announced 221
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG, Deckbuilding; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Card Game
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.90 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.90 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 31,040 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $42k, 1 in 20 over $490k.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. 7 in 10 of the 50 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 221 games are announced against 79 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Marvel's Midnight Suns 2022 · $31M Loop Hero 2021 · $15M Magicraft 2024 · $7.2M The Matchless Kungfu 2024 · $4.1M Black Book 2021 · $4.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
Loop Hero older $14.99 33,816 92% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,207,055) Four Quarters
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
Black Book older $24.99 5,306 93% 159k $4.0M (exactly $3,977,908) Morteshka
BOOK OF HOURS older $24.99 4,129 89% 124k $3.1M (exactly $3,095,511) Weather Factory
Shogun Showdown older $14.99 6,197 95% 186k $2.8M (exactly $2,786,791) Roboatino
Touhou: Lost Branch of Legend · EA older $29.99 2,036 92% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,831,789) Alioth Studio
Aces & Adventures older $19.99 2,220 89% 67k $1.3M (exactly $1,331,334) Triple.B.Titles
Megaloot older $9.99 3,808 71% 114k $1.1M (exactly $1,141,258) axilirate
Dice Gambit $24.99 1,080 87% 32k $810k (exactly $809,676) Chromatic Ink
Out Of Hands $17.99 1,322 93% 40k $713k (exactly $713,483) Game River
Dream of Corpse Lady $9.99 2,115 93% 63k $634k (exactly $633,866) HT3 Studio
Rune Coliseum · EA $18.99 886 79% 27k $505k (exactly $504,754) Rafale Software
Knights in Tight Spaces $19.99 831 69% 25k $498k (exactly $498,351) Ground Shatter
Overlooting $9.99 1,405 81% 42k $421k (exactly $421,078) Posing Possums
Shadowveil: Legend of The Five Rings $24.99 469 74% 14k $352k (exactly $351,609) Palindrome Interactive
Q-UP $9.99 1,126 93% 34k $337k (exactly $337,462) Everybody House Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.