Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Deckbuilding

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Deckbuilding Shooter?

Shooter + Deckbuilding

Of 35 developers who shipped a Deckbuilding Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 70 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $71k, ×114 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 70 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 70 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Deckbuilding
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $779 → $832 → $955 → $1.8k → $959 → $1.4k → $240 (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Deckbuilding: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,040)
Top 25% $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Top 5% $72k (exactly $71,706)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 82
Announced 70
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter, Deckbuilding; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Action, Action Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Funny, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 2,642 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $71k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 70 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SNKRX older $2.99 4,198 94% 126k $377k (exactly $376,561) a327ex
Slime 3K: Rise Against Despot $4.99 1,584 79% 48k $237k (exactly $237,125) Konfa Games
Dark Fairy Tale: Dreamland Survivors $4.99 479 90% 14k $72k (exactly $71,706) BINGOBELL
Lucky Shot $12.99 147 97% 4.4k $57k (exactly $57,286) Deliver Games
Neon Sundown older $4.99 372 87% 11k $56k (exactly $55,688) Ben Nichols
Evolve or Die $4.99 252 98% 7.6k $38k (exactly $37,724) Seal
Break Siege · EA $14.99 66 84% 2.0k $30k (exactly $29,680) FojoGames
Spellshot older $9.99 76 69% 2.3k $23k (exactly $22,777) Team Monumental
Xmas Apocalypse older $6.99 73 79% 2.2k $15k (exactly $15,308) gypynkt
Decks of Dexterity $14.99 33 100% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Coded Games
Wink Out · EA $7.99 31 100% 930 $7.4k (exactly $7,431) Clevergence Games
RuinsStory $9.99 16 100% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) ilili_world
Red Pistol $9.99 14 92% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Ace Horizon Studios
Gunslinger Express $4.99 20 75% 600 $3.0k (exactly $2,994) Glinnor

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.