Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Dating Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dating Sim Survival game?

Survival + Dating Sim

Of 31 developers who shipped a Dating Sim Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $2.9M, ×4712 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 40 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 40 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Dating Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $58k → $68k → $19k → $12k → $34k → $348k → $3.6k (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Dating Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,598)
Top 25% $52k (exactly $52,165)
Top 5% $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 95
Announced 40
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Dating Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Visual Novel, Exploration
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 59% positive over 15,590 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $52k, 1 in 20 over $2.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 4 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Chinese Parents older $9.99 23,168 91% 695k $6.9M (exactly $6,943,450) 墨鱼玩游戏
AI*Shoujo/AI*少女 older $69.99 2,100 75% 63k $4.4M (exactly $4,409,370) ILLUSION
SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada $39.99 3,303 40% 99k $4.0M (exactly $3,962,609) Game Studio Inc.
The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall $11.99 8,227 58% 247k $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame)
Paper Dolls: Original / 纸人 older $16.99 4,449 84% 133k $2.3M (exactly $2,267,655) Beijing Litchi Culture Media Co., Ltd.
Paper Dolls 2 纸人贰 older $19.99 2,636 82% 79k $1.6M (exactly $1,580,809) Beijing Litchi Culture Media Co., Ltd.
Monster Prom 3: Monster Roadtrip older $11.99 2,823 98% 85k $1.0M (exactly $1,015,433) Beautiful Glitch
노베나 디아볼로스 older $18.99 1,462 93% 44k $833k (exactly $832,901) H5DEV Games
Return from Core $16.99 1,620 75% 49k $826k (exactly $825,714) 顽核社 FuncoreClub
S.H.E.L.T.E.R. - An Apocalyptic Tale older $17.99 777 88% 23k $419k (exactly $419,347) Winterlook Games
荒岛求生:逃出美女岛 $9.99 1,161 93% 35k $348k (exactly $347,952) 翱游科技AlbatrooGame, 荒岛互动娱乐
Anime City · EA $14.99 201 72% 6.0k $90k (exactly $90,390) Shoujo City Developer
Lustful Dead 🔞 $9.99 267 49% 8.0k $80k (exactly $80,020) BanzaiProject
永生之庭 $7.99 284 48% 8.5k $68k (exactly $68,075) IMaiIna
Oops.. Where's My Bikini?! 👙🔥 $14.99 116 77% 3.5k $52k (exactly $52,165) Dirty Adventures 🖤
Immortal Farmer: System’s Mandate · EA $4.99 297 68% 8.9k $44k (exactly $44,461) oyogame
The Sex Curse 💋 $9.99 114 88% 3.4k $34k (exactly $34,166) Lust Desires 🖤

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.