Do I ship it?

GamesDating SimDating Sim + Military

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military Dating Sim?

Dating Sim + Military

Only 8 developers shipped a Military Dating Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Wings of Empire, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 more are announced.

Verdict: long shot, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150, ×0.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, but 1 in 20 cleared $22k, ×35 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 5 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 5 announced, ×1.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $0 → $150 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,964)
Top 5% $22k (exactly $22,035)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 35
Announced 5
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Dating Sim
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 144 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $150, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $22k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 5 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair39 devs · median $27k · 44 announced
  7. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  8. + Post-apocalypticFair29 devs · median $15k · 34 announced
  9. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  11. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  12. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Azur Lane Crosswave older $39.99 6,537 68% 196k $7.8M (exactly $7,842,439) IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, FELISTELLA
eden* older $19.99 4,098 98% 123k $2.5M (exactly $2,457,571) minori
Fog of War: Book One older $11.99 205 77% 6.2k $74k (exactly $73,738) Story Machine Studios
Just Deserts older $9.99 234 79% 7.0k $70k (exactly $70,130) Vifth Floor
Wings of Empire · EA $14.99 49 87% 1.5k $22k (exactly $22,035) Droid Productions
Alternative Punishment older $9.99 71 56% 2.1k $21k (exactly $21,279) Kinetic Novels
My Dictator Stalin Can't Be This Cute ?! older $1.49 285 92% 8.6k $13k (exactly $12,740) uwucorp
Cerulean Invasion $18.99 21 76% 630 $12k (exactly $11,964) Vincere Studio
双雄风流传(Romantic Emperor) $2.18 53 86% 1.6k $3.5k (exactly $3,466) Turtle game
Harolds Harem: The Neckoning older $3.99 15 100% 450 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) WhiteVault Studio
Monster Ops 2 $4.99 8 62% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Y Press Games
Monster Ops 3 $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Y Press Games
Monster Ops 4 $4.99 4 75% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Y Press Games
Monster Ops 10 $4.99 2 0% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Y Press Games
Monster Ops 6 $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Y Press Games
Aether HeXXen: Death-Space Requiem Act1 · EA $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) irkinterAction
Night of the Witch's Invasion $0.99 1 0% 30 $30 (exactly $30) AA Mini Games Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.