Do I ship it?

GamesDating SimDating Sim + Mechs

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mech Dating Sim?

Dating Sim + Mechs

Only 16 developers shipped a Mech Dating Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 9 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 7 developers shipped in the last year and 9 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 9 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + Mechs
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $839 → $300 → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim + Mechs: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $899 (exactly $899)
Top 5% $4.0M (exactly $3,962,609)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 37
Announced 9
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Mechs
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Dating Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Adventure, Interactive Fiction
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Cute, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 43% positive over 3,555 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $890, 1 in 20 over $3.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 9 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair39 devs · median $27k · 44 announced
  7. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  8. + Post-apocalypticFair29 devs · median $15k · 34 announced
  9. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  11. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  12. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel older $39.99 5,131 94% 154k $6.2M (exactly $6,155,661) Nihon Falcom
The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel III older $59.99 2,770 92% 83k $5.0M (exactly $4,985,169) Nihon Falcom, Engine Software BV, PH3 G… (Nihon Falcom, Engine Software BV, PH3 GmbH)
The Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel IV older $59.99 2,272 91% 68k $4.1M (exactly $4,088,918) Nihon Falcom, Engine Software BV, PH3 G… (Nihon Falcom, Engine Software BV, PH3 GmbH)
SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada $39.99 3,303 40% 99k $4.0M (exactly $3,962,609) Game Studio Inc.
New Gundam Breaker older $49.99 1,706 45% 51k $2.6M (exactly $2,558,488) CRAFTS & MEISTER Co., Ltd.
Baldr Sky older $49.99 1,524 93% 46k $2.3M (exactly $2,285,543) Sekai Project
Sunrider: Liberation Day - Captain's Edition older $24.99 621 84% 19k $466k (exactly $465,564) Love in Space
Heaven Will Be Mine older $14.99 709 92% 21k $319k (exactly $318,837) Pillow Fight, Worst Girls Games
LUNARiA -Virtualized Moonchild- older $19.99 168 94% 5.0k $101k (exactly $100,750) VISUAL ARTS/Key
Corona Blossom Vol.1 Gift From the Galaxy older $9.99 267 95% 8.0k $80k (exactly $80,020) Frontwing
Mech Academy $9.99 214 91% 6.4k $64k (exactly $64,136) Space Samurai Studio
BROKEN God Awakening $4.99 25 76% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) lamb of game
Professor mother-in-law begged me to get pregnant $9.99 3 33% 90 $899 (exactly $899) CHEN JIAWEI
Dux Solaris · EA $6.99 4 75% 120 $839 (exactly $839) MidnightMelon Games
Transforming my fiancée $9.99 2 0% 60 $599 (exactly $599) FSK20006
OKeverything with 3000 beauties 2 $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) XIOF FAN, S+TEAMBABA, XU TING
OKeverything with 3000 beauties 3 $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) XIOF FAN, XU TING, S+TEAMBABA
My Kirin kidney and my beloved teachers $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) OKEdragon
My Kirin kidney and my beloved teachers 2 $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) OKEdragon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.