Do I ship it?

GamesDating SimDating Sim + Logic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dating Sim Logic game?

Dating Sim + Logic

Of 25 developers who shipped a Dating Sim Logic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×26 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $44k, ×375 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 21 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 26.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 21 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + Logic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $657 → $2.5k → $8.5k → $4.0k → $24k → $2.8k → $360 (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim + Logic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,116)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $12,449)
Top 5% $45k (exactly $44,666)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 84
Announced 21
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Dating Sim, Logic; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Choose Your Own Adventure, Immersive Sim
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.79 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Emotional, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.79 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 3,373 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $44k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair39 devs · median $27k · 44 announced
  7. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  8. + Post-apocalypticFair29 devs · median $15k · 34 announced
  9. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  11. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  12. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Game of Fate 2: A Century's Promise $15.99 1,054 78% 32k $506k (exactly $505,604) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Milfy City - Final Edition older $19.99 710 79% 21k $426k (exactly $425,787) ICSTOR
Game Of Fate 3:Clash Of Crowns $16.79 734 85% 22k $370k (exactly $369,716) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Game of Fate: Chasing Through Time $10.99 986 88% 30k $325k (exactly $325,084) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
LOLLIPOP! older $4.99 1,318 75% 40k $197k (exactly $197,305) 430Games, __Ja__ga__imo__
Purino Party older $11.99 249 66% 7.5k $90k (exactly $89,565) Frontwing
OnlyFuck - RuRu's Adventures older $9.99 233 59% 7.0k $70k (exactly $69,830) NSFW18 Games
봄이 오면 꽃이 피고 · EA older $34.99 66 93% 2.0k $69k (exactly $69,280) TeamOGM
DANGO! older $4.99 405 51% 12k $61k (exactly $60,628) TheBoys, 430Games
Suicide Countdown: 7 Days older $1.99 989 79% 30k $59k (exactly $59,043) 致意
看不见的我们 $6.99 213 92% 6.4k $45k (exactly $44,666) MYSTERY CROWN, 火蜥蜴文化
LA: Streets of Sorcery $14.99 56 89% 1.7k $25k (exactly $25,183) Bear in the Night
Liminal Border Part III $14.99 53 64% 1.6k $24k (exactly $23,834) Purple Software
XStoryPlayer $17.99 38 86% 1.1k $21k (exactly $20,509) X-Moon Productions
Body Pay "OMG! The girl with the big titties is too hitting on me!" $4.99 117 73% 3.5k $18k (exactly $17,515) Cheese Burger Studio
Dawg Game $3.99 104 98% 3.1k $12k (exactly $12,449) Big Noses Entertainment
버튜버 파라노이아 - Vtuber Paranoia $14.99 18 94% 540 $8.1k (exactly $8,095) 유진게임즈

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.