Do I ship it?

GamesDating SimDating Sim + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Idler Dating Sim?

Dating Sim + Idler

Of 72 developers who shipped an Idler Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 82 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.5k, ×29 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $810; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×1233 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 82 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 29.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 82 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 72
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $55k → $33k → $26k → $9.9k → $2.5k → $3.6k (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 72
Bottom 30% $802 (exactly $802)
Median $3.5k (exactly $3,471)
Top 25% $27k (exactly $26,846)
Top 5% $147k (exactly $146,716)
Developers, 2 yr 72
Released games 240
Announced 82
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Dating Sim, Idler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Visual Novel, RPG
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 4,271 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $810, median $3.5k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $810. 6 in 10 of the 59 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 82 games are announced against 36 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair39 devs · median $27k · 44 announced
  7. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  8. + Post-apocalypticFair29 devs · median $15k · 34 announced
  9. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  11. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  12. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Vanity Fair: The Pursuit older $6.99 4,014 87% 120k $842k (exactly $841,736) 木焱工作室
Chill Pulse older $4.99 4,619 95% 139k $691k (exactly $691,464) Catos Game
Yogurt! older $4.99 2,542 75% 76k $381k (exactly $380,537) 430Games, __Ja__ga__imo__
Wolf of Stock Street older $10.99 878 77% 26k $289k (exactly $289,477) 樹懶叫工作室, sloth gamer
Isekai Sex Boutique $10.99 746 88% 22k $246k (exactly $245,956) PEROCO WORKS
欺神弄鬼 · EA $9.99 802 91% 24k $240k (exactly $240,359) 猫台班子工作室 Cat Caboodle
LOLLIPOP! older $4.99 1,318 75% 40k $197k (exactly $197,305) 430Games, __Ja__ga__imo__
Paper Bride 5 Two Lifetimes older $9.99 606 84% 18k $182k (exactly $181,618) HeartBeat Plus
Fantasy Aquarium $6.99 833 79% 25k $175k (exactly $174,680) MOON SCAPE
👑Idle Calibur:Zero💕(选王之剑:零) $10.99 445 80% 13k $147k (exactly $146,716) 绝汪
Paper Bride 6 Nightmare $9.99 369 81% 11k $111k (exactly $110,589) HeartBeat Plus
Lust Sisters 🔞 $14.99 215 67% 6.5k $97k (exactly $96,686) Carnality INC
Giant Waifu Wash Simulator 💦 $14.99 194 65% 5.8k $87k (exactly $87,242) Lewd Star
Whimsy Bake&Craft $7.99 357 64% 11k $86k (exactly $85,573) MOON SCAPE
Monster Girls: You Can't Say No 🔞 $14.99 158 91% 4.7k $71k (exactly $71,053) Lewd Star
Big Tiddy Goth Baddie🖤⛓️ $14.99 152 76% 4.6k $68k (exactly $68,354) BanzaiProject

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.