Do I ship it?

GamesDating SimDating Sim + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Dating Sim?

Dating Sim + Futuristic

Of 59 developers who shipped a Futuristic Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×11 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $3.0k. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 46 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 46 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 59
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $30k → $22k → $41k → $32k → $8.4k → $6.0k → $3.4k (still earning) → $4.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 59
Bottom 30% $3.0k (exactly $2,967)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,396)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $25,175)
Top 5% $88k (exactly $88,112)
Developers, 2 yr 59
Released games 158
Announced 46
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Dating Sim; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Adventure, Choices Matter
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 3,065 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.0k, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $88k.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 7 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair39 devs · median $27k · 44 announced
  7. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  8. + Post-apocalypticFair29 devs · median $15k · 34 announced
  9. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  11. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  12. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
I Was a Teenage Exocolonist older $24.99 4,443 96% 133k $3.3M (exactly $3,330,917) Northway Games
Eternights older $29.99 3,046 85% 91k $2.7M (exactly $2,740,486) Studio Sai
Baldr Sky older $49.99 1,524 93% 46k $2.3M (exactly $2,285,543) Sekai Project
Projekt: Passion - Season 1 older $11.99 3,501 92% 105k $1.3M (exactly $1,259,310) Classy Lemon
PARQUET older $16.99 1,771 95% 53k $903k (exactly $902,679) YUZUSOFTSOUR
Cyanotype Daydream -The Girl Who Dreamed the World- older $39.99 710 88% 21k $852k (exactly $851,787) Laplacian
Hookah Haze older $17.99 1,288 92% 39k $695k (exactly $695,134) ACQUIRE Corp.
Projekt: Passion - Season 2 $11.99 1,005 93% 30k $361k (exactly $361,498) Classy Lemon
Sexbot $14.99 723 86% 22k $325k (exactly $325,133) Llamamann Games
反转21克 older $8.99 1,020 72% 31k $275k (exactly $275,094) 想象颗粒
Villain's Legacy $9.99 294 82% 8.8k $88k (exactly $88,112) Mad scientist lab
Milfy Way: Space Orgasm 🪐🔞 $14.99 172 75% 5.2k $77k (exactly $77,348) Pocket Rocket Studio 🚀
Lust Theory Season 3 $14.99 146 60% 4.4k $66k (exactly $65,656) Inceton Games
SQUAD XXX: Slut Hunt 🚨 $14.99 133 76% 4.0k $60k (exactly $59,810) Lewd Star
Stellar Dream - Part 1 $14.99 129 87% 3.9k $58k (exactly $58,011) Winterlook Games
Lust Effect [18+] $14.99 124 66% 3.7k $56k (exactly $55,763) Dirty Adventures 🖤
Train and Tame $9.99 184 65% 5.5k $55k (exactly $55,145) Tames Games
Arcane Lust 18+ $9.99 155 68% 4.7k $46k (exactly $46,454) Carnality INC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.