Do I ship it?

Games › Dating Sim › Dating Sim + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Dating Sim?

Dating Sim + Dystopian

Of 22 developers who shipped a Dystopian Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×8.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $70k, ×149 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 29 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 29 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $25k → $5.9k → $148 (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $4.0k (exactly $4,046)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $18,609)
Top 5% $71k (exactly $70,953)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 58
Announced 29
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Dating Sim; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Adventure, Choices Matter
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 1,577 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $4.0k, 1 in 4 over $18k, 1 in 20 over $70k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair39 devs · median $27k · 44 announced
  7. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  8. + Post-apocalypticFair29 devs · median $15k · 34 announced
  9. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  11. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  12. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

AI＊Shoujo/AI＊少女 2020 · $4.4M Baldr Sky 2019 · $2.3M Hentai Femdom Sim: Femdom University 2021 · $365k Booth: A Dystopian Adventure 2020 · $106k Sex Desert: Mad Lust 2025 · $97k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
AI＊Shoujo/AI＊少女 older $69.99 2,100 75% 63k $4.4M (exactly $4,409,370) ILLUSION
Baldr Sky older $49.99 1,524 93% 46k $2.3M (exactly $2,285,543) Sekai Project
Hentai Femdom Sim: Femdom University older $34.99 348 79% 10k $365k (exactly $365,296) SaliaCoel
Booth: A Dystopian Adventure older $9.99 354 88% 11k $106k (exactly $106,094) Guanpeng Chen
Sex Desert: Mad Lust $9.99 323 61% 9.7k $97k (exactly $96,803) Carnality INC
FutaDomWorld · EA older $18.99 156 94% 4.7k $89k (exactly $88,873) New Dawn Games
Is the Vat Utopia or Dystopia? $2.99 791 97% 24k $71k (exactly $70,953) Night Cruising 夜间巡航
长明火计划 Project: Eternal Flame older $19.99 77 88% 2.3k $46k (exactly $46,177) 唐扬Studio
Jester / King older $15.99 85 94% 2.6k $41k (exactly $40,774) Rolling Crown
VIRTUAL GIRL @ WORLD’S END $19.99 67 92% 2.0k $40k (exactly $40,180) 株式会社ヘッドロック
Saviour of the Wasteland $9.99 84 78% 2.5k $25k (exactly $25,175) PTGames
Dream about yoU $7.99 88 87% 2.6k $21k (exactly $21,094) 雏形游戏
BBY DON'T HURT ME · EA $8.99 69 73% 2.1k $19k (exactly $18,609) KITT DESIGNS LTD, Dare Looks
Futa on Top $7.99 49 61% 1.5k $12k (exactly $11,745) Futa on Top
My Horny Roomies $7.99 45 86% 1.4k $11k (exactly $10,786) Fantasy Games
Vtuber Sex Manager $8.99 22 68% 660 $5.9k (exactly $5,933) Fantasy Games
Virtual★Happy Land | バーチャル★ハッピーランド $4.99 39 79% 1.2k $5.8k (exactly $5,838) CHARON, YANASE GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.