Do I ship it?

Games › Shoot 'Em Up › Shoot 'Em Up + Dark Fantasy

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy Shoot 'Em Up?

Shoot 'Em Up + Dark Fantasy

Of 54 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy Shoot 'Em Up in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 81 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180, ×0.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120. 81 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper, while revenue is up 435% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 435% on the market, 81 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shoot 'Em Up + Dark Fantasy
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 54
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.7k → $3.1k → $599 → $299 → $208 → $1.2k → $119 (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shoot 'Em Up + Dark Fantasy: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 54
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $180 (exactly $180)
Top 25% $1.7k (exactly $1,676)
Top 5% $65k (exactly $64,728)
Developers, 2 yr 54
Released games 165
Announced 81
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 435% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Dark Fantasy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Shoot 'Em Up; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Bullet Hell, Action Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 3,682 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $180, 1 in 4 over $1.6k, 1 in 20 over $64k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 81 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shoot 'Em Up with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FaithFair13 devs · median $17k · 13 announced
  2. + RomanceFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 7 announced
  3. + VampiresFair15 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  4. + Quick-Time EventsFair8 devs · median $1.2k · 12 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair39 devs · median $628 · 36 announced
  6. + IdlerFair36 devs · median $628 · 14 announced
  7. + Tower DefenseFair70 devs · median $599 · 54 announced
  8. + Resource ManagementFair26 devs · median $599 · 34 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair749 devs · median $419 · 783 announced
  10. + SwordplayLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  11. + MusicPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 12 announced
  12. + LovecraftianPoor odds8 devs · median $8.1k · 20 announced

All 169 pairs on the Shoot 'Em Up page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

20 Minutes Till Dawn 2023 · $4.2M Project Warlock 2018 · $1.7M Bloodshed 2025 · $711k Gungrave G.O.R.E 2022 · $669k DEMON'S TILT 2019 · $577k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
20 Minutes Till Dawn older $4.99 27,872 90% 836k $4.2M (exactly $4,172,438) flanne
Project Warlock older $12.00 4,691 87% 141k $1.7M (exactly $1,688,760) Buckshot Software
Bloodshed $12.99 1,824 84% 55k $711k (exactly $710,813) com8com1 Software
Gungrave G.O.R.E older $29.99 744 71% 22k $669k (exactly $669,377) Iggymob Co.,Ltd
DEMON'S TILT older $19.99 962 94% 29k $577k (exactly $576,911) WIZNWAR, FLARB LLC
Sexy Mystic Survivors · EA older $9.99 1,856 75% 56k $556k (exactly $556,243) Fantasize Games
TouHou Makuka Sai ~ Fantastic Danmaku Festival Part III $13.99 1,242 90% 37k $521k (exactly $521,267) 东方幕华祭制作组
Kill The Crows older $4.99 2,848 95% 85k $426k (exactly $426,346) 5minlab Corp.
Goobies older $5.99 1,866 90% 56k $335k (exactly $335,320) Höganäs Spel
Beautiful Mystic Survivors · EA older $4.99 1,209 69% 36k $181k (exactly $180,987) Fantasize Games
Ancient Cultivatrix $8.99 240 67% 7.2k $65k (exactly $64,728) 五条虾仁(5 shrimps)
Harem of Gods $9.99 109 63% 3.3k $33k (exactly $32,667) Sweet Cakes Games
Abyss Horde $4.99 89 84% 2.7k $13k (exactly $13,323) Solo Gaming
Arcane Tower Survivors $3.99 90 75% 2.7k $11k (exactly $10,773) Red Horde Games
Hell Survivors · EA $7.99 38 55% 1.1k $9.1k (exactly $9,109) Aerilon
BAROQUE SHOOTING: REVERSED $14.99 14 92% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Sting
Cloudbreaker $12.99 12 91% 360 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) Ballast Games
GRING×GRIND $4.99 24 66% 720 $3.6k (exactly $3,593) Lola Fisher

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.