Do I ship it?

GamesCyclingCycling + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation Cycling game?

Cycling + Simulation

Only 16 developers shipped a Simulation Cycling game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Pro Cycling Manager 25, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $89; 1 in 20 cleared $210k, ×348 the market median. Revenue is up 955% on the market; 29 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 955% on the market, 29 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Cycling + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $126k → $1.5k → $899 → $2.1k → $2.4k → $30 → $77k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Cycling + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $2.6k (exactly $2,634)
Top 5% $218k (exactly $218,345)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 70
Announced 29
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 955% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Cycling
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Cycling, Simulation; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Bikes, Sports, Management
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 1,114 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Cycling with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 17 announced
  2. + BMXFair9 devs · median $2.1k · 10 announced
  3. + AdventurePoor odds14 devs · median $6.1k · 20 announced
  4. + BikesPoor odds13 devs · median $4.2k · 21 announced
  5. + ActionPoor odds14 devs · median $2.4k · 17 announced
  6. + RacingPoor odds23 devs · median $2.1k · 18 announced
  7. + PhysicsPoor odds12 devs · median $2.1k · 13 announced
  8. + ArcadePoor odds13 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  9. + DrivingDead9 devs · median $239 · 17 announced

All 9 pairs on the Cycling page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Riders Republic older $39.99 30,458 81% 914k $37M (exactly $36,540,463) Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Pune, Ubisoft Odesa)
Descenders older $24.99 19,836 95% 595k $15M (exactly $14,871,049) RageSquid
Lonely Mountains: Downhill older $19.99 2,741 89% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,643,778) Megagon Industries
Gym Simulator 24 older $12.99 2,531 84% 76k $986k (exactly $986,331) Red Axe Games
Pro Cycling Manager 25 $39.99 496 75% 15k $595k (exactly $595,051) Cyanide Studio
Pro Cycling Manager 2022 older $39.99 433 85% 13k $519k (exactly $519,470) Cyanide Studio
Monster Energy Supercross - The Official Videogame older $19.99 817 84% 25k $490k (exactly $489,955) Milestone S.r.l.
Pro Cycling Manager 2023 older $39.99 388 74% 12k $465k (exactly $465,484) Cyanide Studio
Pro Cycling Manager 2021 older $39.99 344 77% 10k $413k (exactly $412,697) Cyanide Studio
Pro Cycling Manager 2024 older $39.99 340 81% 10k $408k (exactly $407,898) Cyanide Studio
Tour de France 2025 $39.99 182 77% 5.5k $218k (exactly $218,345) Cyanide Studio
Pro Cycling Manager 26 $39.99 116 65% 3.5k $139k (exactly $139,165) Cyanide Studio
Tour de France 2026 $39.99 64 75% 1.9k $77k (exactly $76,781) Cyanide Studios
Motorcycle Night Ride · EA $5.99 213 76% 6.4k $38k (exactly $38,276) Suber Game Studio, Room Games
Digital Anima: Virtual Lifeform Care Kit $4.39 20 75% 600 $2.6k (exactly $2,634) dankhearts, 双異典
Accolade Sports Collection (QUByte Classics) $19.99 4 75% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) QUByte Interactive
pedalverse $4.99 14 42% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) FuristicStudio
Bike Park Simulator: BMX, Dirt Jump & MTB · EA $7.99 2 0% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Hard Shark Games
Motor Racing Battle $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Liquid Meow

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.