Do I ship it?

GamesCyclingCycling + Adventure

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Adventure Cycling game?

Cycling + Adventure

Only 14 developers shipped an Adventure Cycling game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, MAVRIX by Matt Jones, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.1k, ×9.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1851 the market median. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 20 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 20 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Cycling + Adventure
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $505 → $2.1k → $4.2k → $29k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Cycling + Adventure: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $1.0k (exactly $1,008)
Median $6.1k (exactly $6,120)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $29,042)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,162,509)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 31
Announced 20
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Cycling
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Adventure
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Cycling, Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 2,601 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $6.1k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 6 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Cycling with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 17 announced
  2. + BMXFair9 devs · median $2.1k · 10 announced
  3. + BikesPoor odds13 devs · median $4.2k · 21 announced
  4. + ActionPoor odds14 devs · median $2.4k · 17 announced
  5. + RacingPoor odds23 devs · median $2.1k · 18 announced
  6. + PhysicsPoor odds12 devs · median $2.1k · 13 announced
  7. + ArcadePoor odds13 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  8. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $449 · 29 announced
  9. + DrivingDead9 devs · median $239 · 17 announced

All 9 pairs on the Cycling page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
MAVRIX by Matt Jones $39.99 969 80% 29k $1.2M (exactly $1,162,509) Third Kind Games
Pro Cycling Manager 25 $39.99 496 75% 15k $595k (exactly $595,051) Cyanide Studio
Wheel World $19.99 735 90% 22k $441k (exactly $440,779) Messhof
Fears to Fathom - Carson House older $4.99 2,764 91% 83k $414k (exactly $413,771) Rayll
Pro Cycling Manager 2024 older $39.99 340 81% 10k $408k (exactly $407,898) Cyanide Studio
Pro Cycling Manager 2014 older $9.99 225 64% 6.8k $67k (exactly $67,432) Cyanide Studio
BIKEOUT older $24.99 75 42% 2.3k $56k (exactly $56,228) Black Swan
Draw Rider older $9.99 130 70% 3.9k $39k (exactly $38,961) 17Studio
Unicycle Together $4.99 194 89% 5.8k $29k (exactly $29,042) Eneskp, Yusuf Demirhan
Parcel Corps $7.99 116 62% 3.5k $28k (exactly $27,805) Billy Goat Entertainment Ltd
WATTGAMES · EA $24.99 13 84% 390 $9.7k (exactly $9,746) TripleScience Software
CYCLE $12.00 17 100% 510 $6.1k (exactly $6,120) DVTZR
Tiny Whiny Island $3.99 35 85% 1.1k $4.2k (exactly $4,190) Marshlander Games
pedalverse $4.99 14 42% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) FuristicStudio
Ride It! $2.80 12 100% 360 $1.0k (exactly $1,008) dpm, Revi, GatoHolguera

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.