Do I ship it?

Games › Cycling › Cycling + Racing

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cycling Racing game?

Cycling + Racing

Of 23 developers who shipped a Cycling Racing game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $440k, ×702 the market median. Revenue is up 200% on the market; 18 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 200% on the market, 18 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Cycling + Racing
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $1.5k → $899 → $1.2k → $5.6k → $449 → $3.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Cycling + Racing: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Top 25% $38k (exactly $38,276)
Top 5% $441k (exactly $440,779)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 76
Announced 18
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 200% on the market, supply 55% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Cycling
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Racing
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling, track content and opponent AI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Cycling, Racing; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Bikes, Sports, Physics
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 2,581 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $38k, 1 in 20 over $440k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Cycling with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 17 announced
  2. + BMXFair9 devs · median $2.1k · 10 announced
  3. + AdventurePoor odds14 devs · median $6.1k · 20 announced
  4. + BikesPoor odds13 devs · median $4.2k · 21 announced
  5. + ActionPoor odds14 devs · median $2.4k · 17 announced
  6. + PhysicsPoor odds12 devs · median $2.1k · 13 announced
  7. + ArcadePoor odds13 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  8. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $449 · 29 announced
  9. + DrivingDead9 devs · median $239 · 17 announced

All 9 pairs on the Cycling page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Riders Republic 2023 · $37M Descenders 2019 · $15M Lonely Mountains: Downhill 2019 · $1.6M MAVRIX by Matt Jones 2026 · $1.2M Pro Cycling Manager 2022 2022 · $519k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Riders Republic older $39.99 30,458 81% 914k $37M (exactly $36,540,463) Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Pune, Ubisoft Odesa)
Descenders older $24.99 19,836 95% 595k $15M (exactly $14,871,049) RageSquid
Lonely Mountains: Downhill older $19.99 2,741 89% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,643,778) Megagon Industries
MAVRIX by Matt Jones $39.99 969 80% 29k $1.2M (exactly $1,162,509) Third Kind Games
Pro Cycling Manager 2022 older $39.99 433 85% 13k $519k (exactly $519,470) Cyanide Studio
Monster Energy Supercross - The Official Videogame older $19.99 817 84% 25k $490k (exactly $489,955) Milestone S.r.l.
Pro Cycling Manager 2023 older $39.99 388 74% 12k $465k (exactly $465,484) Cyanide Studio
Wheel World $19.99 735 90% 22k $441k (exactly $440,779) Messhof
Pro Cycling Manager 2021 older $39.99 344 77% 10k $413k (exactly $412,697) Cyanide Studio
Pro Cycling Manager 2020 older $19.99 602 85% 18k $361k (exactly $361,019) Cyanide Studio
Tour de France 2025 $39.99 182 77% 5.5k $218k (exactly $218,345) Cyanide Studio
VMX · EA $14.99 229 89% 6.9k $103k (exactly $102,981) Break Free Interactive
Tour de France 2026 $39.99 64 75% 1.9k $77k (exactly $76,781) Cyanide Studios
Motorcycle Night Ride · EA $5.99 213 76% 6.4k $38k (exactly $38,276) Suber Game Studio, Room Games
Parcel Corps $7.99 116 62% 3.5k $28k (exactly $27,805) Billy Goat Entertainment Ltd
WATTGAMES · EA $24.99 13 84% 390 $9.7k (exactly $9,746) TripleScience Software
Bananitro $3.99 47 100% 1.4k $5.6k (exactly $5,626) Inventario
Cycling Champion · EA $8.99 13 84% 390 $3.5k (exactly $3,506) RaulM

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.