Do I ship it?

GamesCyclingCycling + Action

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Action Cycling game?

Cycling + Action

Only 14 developers shipped an Action Cycling game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, MAVRIX by Matt Jones, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1851 the market median. Revenue is up 425% on the market; 17 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 425% on the market, 17 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Cycling + Action
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.4k → $27k → $3.9k → $2.1k → $5.6k → $150
Outcomes for Cycling + Action: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,399)
Top 25% $9.7k (exactly $9,746)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,162,509)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 44
Announced 17
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 425% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Cycling
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Action
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Cycling, Action; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Racing, Action-Adventure, Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 1,418 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $9.7k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Cycling with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 17 announced
  2. + BMXFair9 devs · median $2.1k · 10 announced
  3. + AdventurePoor odds14 devs · median $6.1k · 20 announced
  4. + BikesPoor odds13 devs · median $4.2k · 21 announced
  5. + RacingPoor odds23 devs · median $2.1k · 18 announced
  6. + PhysicsPoor odds12 devs · median $2.1k · 13 announced
  7. + ArcadePoor odds13 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  8. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $449 · 29 announced
  9. + DrivingDead9 devs · median $239 · 17 announced

All 9 pairs on the Cycling page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Riders Republic older $39.99 30,458 81% 914k $37M (exactly $36,540,463) Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Pune, Ubisoft Odesa)
Descenders older $24.99 19,836 95% 595k $15M (exactly $14,871,049) RageSquid
Lonely Mountains: Downhill older $19.99 2,741 89% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,643,778) Megagon Industries
MAVRIX by Matt Jones $39.99 969 80% 29k $1.2M (exactly $1,162,509) Third Kind Games
VMX · EA $14.99 229 89% 6.9k $103k (exactly $102,981) Break Free Interactive
BIKEOUT older $24.99 75 42% 2.3k $56k (exactly $56,228) Black Swan
STREET UNi X older $19.99 78 96% 2.3k $47k (exactly $46,777) daffodil & friends
Draw Rider older $9.99 130 70% 3.9k $39k (exactly $38,961) 17Studio
Parcel Corps $7.99 116 62% 3.5k $28k (exactly $27,805) Billy Goat Entertainment Ltd
All-In-One Summer Sports VR · EA older $19.99 45 84% 1.4k $27k (exactly $26,986) Appnori Inc.
WATTGAMES · EA $24.99 13 84% 390 $9.7k (exactly $9,746) TripleScience Software
CYCLE $12.00 17 100% 510 $6.1k (exactly $6,120) DVTZR
Bananitro $3.99 47 100% 1.4k $5.6k (exactly $5,626) Inventario
Accolade Sports Collection (QUByte Classics) $19.99 4 75% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) QUByte Interactive
pedalverse $4.99 14 42% 420 $2.1k (exactly $2,096) FuristicStudio
Legends BMX $9.99 6 83% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) Saga Legends Games
Motor Racing Battle $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Liquid Meow

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.