Do I ship it?

GamesCyclingCycling + Driving

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cycling Driving game?

Cycling + Driving

Only 9 developers shipped a Cycling Driving game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Motorcycle Night Ride, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced, ×5.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $240 against a market of $630. 17 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 105% on the market, 17 announced, ×5.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Cycling + Driving
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $505 → $479 → $239 → $270
Outcomes for Cycling + Driving: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $449 (exactly $449)
Top 5% $38k (exactly $38,276)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 34
Announced 17
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Cycling
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Driving
effort 6 / 10 · low · vehicle handling feel is tuned by hand

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Cycling, Driving
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 625 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $240, 1 in 4 over $440, 1 in 20 over $38k.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Cycling with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair21 devs · median $2.1k · 17 announced
  2. + BMXFair9 devs · median $2.1k · 10 announced
  3. + AdventurePoor odds14 devs · median $6.1k · 20 announced
  4. + BikesPoor odds13 devs · median $4.2k · 21 announced
  5. + ActionPoor odds14 devs · median $2.4k · 17 announced
  6. + RacingPoor odds23 devs · median $2.1k · 18 announced
  7. + PhysicsPoor odds12 devs · median $2.1k · 13 announced
  8. + ArcadePoor odds13 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  9. + SimulationPoor odds16 devs · median $449 · 29 announced

All 9 pairs on the Cycling page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tour de France 2020 older $19.99 122 80% 3.7k $73k (exactly $73,163) Cyanide Studio
Tour de France 2021 older $39.99 59 81% 1.8k $71k (exactly $70,782) Cyanide Studio
Motorcycle Night Ride · EA $5.99 213 76% 6.4k $38k (exactly $38,276) Suber Game Studio, Room Games
Shred! Remastered older $4.99 100 59% 3.0k $15k (exactly $14,970) ASBO Interactive
Magnytour older $14.99 22 86% 660 $9.9k (exactly $9,893) Pandaroo Interactive
Downhill Pro Racer · EA older $12.99 22 77% 660 $8.6k (exactly $8,573) Germán de la Fuente
Neon Rider Classic older $2.99 43 74% 1.3k $3.9k (exactly $3,857) Louissi, Jeff Wofford
Traction Control · EA older $4.99 25 96% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) Mitchell Lawrence
UNICYCLIST older $4.99 7 71% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) John Peate
Ride It! $2.80 12 100% 360 $1.0k (exactly $1,008) dpm, Revi, GatoHolguera
Motor Racing Battle $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Liquid Meow
Motorhome: Traveling North America 2 Collector's Edition $8.99 1 100% 30 $270 (exactly $270) Avi Games
Racing: Storm Chase $1.99 4 25% 120 $239 (exactly $239) ChenZepeng
Man For Takeaway $1.99 3 100% 90 $179 (exactly $179) zjf
Public Toilet Simulator $0.99 3 33% 90 $89 (exactly $89) OneiGames
Atomic Cyclecar Racing 2 $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Studio Prime LLC
Roach with Bike · EA $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Hard Shark Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.