Do I ship it?

GamesSpace SimSpace Sim + Cyberpunk

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cyberpunk Space Sim?

Space Sim + Cyberpunk

Only 11 developers shipped a Cyberpunk Space Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Ostranauts, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 42 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $1.8M, ×2996 the market median. Revenue is up 3805% on the market; 42 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 3805% on the market, 42 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Space Sim + Cyberpunk
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $861 → $359 → $3.6k (still earning) → $3.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Space Sim + Cyberpunk: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,597)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,982)
Top 5% $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 59
Announced 42
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 3805% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Cyberpunk
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Space Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 3,833 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $1.8M.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 42 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Space Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DestructionFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair9 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + Tactical RPGFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + WarFair34 devs · median $1.3k · 42 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorFair16 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  6. + SportsFair8 devs · median $479 · 9 announced
  7. + DiplomacyLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  8. + MilitaryPoor odds18 devs · median $6.3k · 39 announced
  9. + Online Co-OpPoor odds18 devs · median $4.9k · 63 announced
  10. + Strategy RPGPoor odds8 devs · median $4.9k · 21 announced
  11. + SandboxPoor odds86 devs · median $4.6k · 213 announced
  12. + Colony SimPoor odds42 devs · median $4.6k · 91 announced

All 114 pairs on the Space Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
Industries of Titan older $29.99 1,553 61% 47k $1.4M (exactly $1,397,234) Brace Yourself Games
3030 Deathwar Redux - A Space Odyssey older $14.99 1,057 93% 32k $475k (exactly $475,333) Bird in Sky
Nonentity Galaxy $9.99 587 94% 18k $176k (exactly $175,924) Brick-Up Studio
Landinar: Into the Void older $19.99 234 55% 7.0k $140k (exactly $140,330) Convoy Games
SPACE ACCIDENT older $11.99 292 82% 8.8k $105k (exactly $105,032) Whale Rock Games
Dofamine older $9.99 212 82% 6.4k $64k (exactly $63,536) Whale Rock Games
Star Nomad 2 older $12.99 137 67% 4.1k $53k (exactly $53,389) Huy Phan
Space Cats Tactics older $14.99 100 74% 3.0k $45k (exactly $44,970) Mitzi Games, Alex Nicola
Space Station Tycoon older $4.99 190 56% 5.7k $28k (exactly $28,443) Lunheim Studios
Cosmic Miners · EA $9.99 60 53% 1.8k $18k (exactly $17,982) bitByte Games
Interstellar Espionage Inc. $11.99 16 87% 480 $5.8k (exactly $5,755) Fancy Raven Games
Hexalith $9.99 13 100% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Artemi Studios
Comet Tycoon $11.99 10 80% 300 $3.6k (exactly $3,597) CalmFrantix
Alastrius: Star-Fighter $11.99 3 100% 90 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) Caledonia Interactive
Anomaly Operation $6.99 2 100% 60 $419 (exactly $419) for
Bugs. Billions of Bugs. $2.99 2 50% 60 $179 (exactly $179) Recoil Mojo
RFA Station $1.99 3 66% 90 $179 (exactly $179) AK Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.