Do I ship it?

GamesDating SimDating Sim + Cyberpunk

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cyberpunk Dating Sim?

Dating Sim + Cyberpunk

Of 52 developers who shipped a Cyberpunk Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 70 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×8.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×362 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 70 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 70 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Dating Sim + Cyberpunk
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 52
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $27k → $10k → $70k → $7.5k → $9.0k → $6.0k → $599 (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Dating Sim + Cyberpunk: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 52
Bottom 30% $748 (exactly $748)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,389)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $21,094)
Top 5% $227k (exactly $227,472)
Developers, 2 yr 52
Released games 134
Announced 70
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Cyberpunk
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Dating Sim; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Adventure, Choose Your Own Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 5,440 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 6 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 70 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Dating Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WarStrong odds8 devs · median $100k · 3 announced
  2. + FMVStrong odds148 devs · median $57k · 111 announced
  3. + Souls-likeStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  4. + AliensStrong odds20 devs · median $6.7k · 15 announced
  5. + PlatformerStrong odds19 devs · median $3.0k · 15 announced
  6. + HistoricalFair39 devs · median $27k · 44 announced
  7. + FPSFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  8. + Post-apocalypticFair29 devs · median $15k · 34 announced
  9. + Quick-Time EventsFair17 devs · median $15k · 16 announced
  10. + Immersive SimFair295 devs · median $13k · 296 announced
  11. + Action-AdventureFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  12. + TacticalFair13 devs · median $11k · 9 announced

All 142 pairs on the Dating Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DRAMAtical Murder older $19.99 4,640 96% 139k $2.8M (exactly $2,782,608) Nitro+CHiRAL
Killer is Dead - Nightmare Edition older $19.99 3,879 75% 116k $2.3M (exactly $2,326,236) KADOKAWA GAMES / GRASSHOPPER MANUFACTURE
Baldr Sky older $49.99 1,524 93% 46k $2.3M (exactly $2,285,543) Sekai Project
Rebellion GODSOUL: Awakening · EA $17.99 2,458 85% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583) U-Secret Studio
Projekt: Passion - Season 1 older $11.99 3,501 92% 105k $1.3M (exactly $1,259,310) Classy Lemon
Chill Pulse older $4.99 4,619 95% 139k $691k (exactly $691,464) Catos Game
City of Broken Dreamers: Book One older $9.99 1,589 91% 48k $476k (exactly $476,223) PhillyGames
Projekt: Passion - Season 2 $11.99 1,005 93% 30k $361k (exactly $361,498) Classy Lemon
反转21克 older $8.99 1,020 72% 31k $275k (exactly $275,094) 想象颗粒
Sex & Blood: Vampires $9.99 759 71% 23k $227k (exactly $227,472) Taboo Tales 💘
HARDCODED $16.99 282 90% 8.5k $144k (exactly $143,735) Ghost Hug Games
Futa Nights: Bloody Sluts 💋 $14.99 159 74% 4.8k $72k (exactly $71,502) Dirty Adventures 🖤
永生之庭 $7.99 284 48% 8.5k $68k (exactly $68,075) IMaiIna
SQUAD XXX: Slut Hunt 🚨 $14.99 133 76% 4.0k $60k (exactly $59,810) Lewd Star
STRAY GIRL 🔞 $9.99 179 79% 5.4k $54k (exactly $53,646) Carnality INC
VIRTUAL GIRL @ WORLD’S END $19.99 67 92% 2.0k $40k (exactly $40,180) 株式会社ヘッドロック
SEXXX GIRLS [18+] $9.99 114 71% 3.4k $34k (exactly $34,166) Lust Desires 🖤

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.