Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based StrategyTurn-Based Strategy + Crime

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crime Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Crime

Only 15 developers shipped a Crime Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Black Gold - Shining Town, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×170 the market median. Revenue is up 800% on the market; 43 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 800% on the market, 43 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Crime
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.9k → $3.6k (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Crime: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $390 (exactly $390)
Median $2.0k (exactly $1,977)
Top 25% $6.9k (exactly $6,924)
Top 5% $107k (exactly $107,024)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 54
Announced 43
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 800% on the market, supply 175% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Crime
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 698 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $6.9k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Persona 5 Royal older $59.99 91,682 96% 2.8M $165M (exactly $165,000,095) ATLUS
Empire of Sin older $39.99 4,544 49% 136k $5.5M (exactly $5,451,437) Romero Games
This Is the Police 2 older $14.99 5,330 77% 160k $2.4M (exactly $2,396,901) Weappy Studio
Clue/Cluedo: Classic Edition older $16.99 3,096 88% 93k $1.6M (exactly $1,578,031) Marmalade Game Studio Ltd
City of Gangsters older $29.99 1,332 73% 40k $1.2M (exactly $1,198,400) SomaSim
Omerta - City of Gangsters older $14.99 1,597 67% 48k $718k (exactly $718,171) Haemimont Games
Shadows of Forbidden Gods older $19.99 1,046 91% 31k $627k (exactly $627,286) Bobby Two Hands
Antihero older $14.99 658 86% 20k $296k (exactly $295,903) Tim Conkling
Police Shootout older $14.99 449 55% 13k $202k (exactly $201,915) Games Incubator, Hypnotic Ants
This Is the President older $14.99 359 67% 11k $161k (exactly $161,442) SuperPAC
Black Gold - Shining Town $13.99 255 80% 7.7k $107k (exactly $107,024) Morexingame
The Fable: Manga Build Roguelike $9.99 240 91% 7.2k $72k (exactly $71,928) MONO ENTERTAINMENT
Liar Game $2.99 109 82% 3.3k $9.8k (exactly $9,777) Kark Project
Paracom $10.99 21 90% 630 $6.9k (exactly $6,924) Steel Widow Klan
Empire of Vice : Chicago · EA $16.99 9 77% 270 $4.6k (exactly $4,587) Artifex Parvus
EmpireX - Business, Real Estate and Crime Simulator $14.99 8 75% 240 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) darkwolf66
Blackjack Roulette $2.99 30 83% 900 $2.7k (exactly $2,691) DreamArk Lab
Bratki $5.99 11 72% 330 $2.0k (exactly $1,977) VZLab
Smoke Town $6.99 9 100% 270 $1.9k (exactly $1,887) TSRV
GASLIFT: A Chair Horror $2.99 6 50% 180 $538 (exactly $538) SmoochGM

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.