Games › Perma Death › Perma Death + Crime
Should I ship a Crime Perma Death game?
Perma Death + Crime
Only 14 developers shipped a Crime Perma Death game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, CASE RECORDS: Lost Night, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $8.3k, ×13 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 26 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $897 (exactly $897) |
| Top 25% | $1.3k (exactly $1,347) |
| Top 5% | $8.4k (exactly $8,383) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 14 |
| Released games | 30 |
| Announced | 26 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Perma Death
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
- Crime
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Perma Death; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Simulation, Adventure
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $5.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 1990's, Atmospheric, Dark
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $5.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 63% positive over 135 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 26 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Perma Death with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + LGBTQ+Strong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + Creature CollectorFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + PiratesFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + Interactive FictionFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Time ManagementFair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + 3D PlatformerFair
Comparable games
Fears to Fathom - Norwood Hitchhike 2022 · $484k 
The Backrooms Project 2022 · EA · $32k 
Amber Alert 2024 · $29k 
Cocaine Dealer 2021 · EA · $13k 
Bike Rush 2018 · $9.1k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Fears to Fathom - Norwood Hitchhike | older | $4.99 | 3,230 87% | 97k | $484k (exactly $483,531) | Rayll |
| | The Backrooms Project | · EA older | $9.99 | 106 63% | 3.2k | $32k (exactly $31,768) | 3AM Studios |
| | Amber Alert | older | $4.99 | 192 63% | 5.8k | $29k (exactly $28,742) | MEATBREAD, VirtualVillain |
| | Cocaine Dealer | · EA older | $3.99 | 109 80% | 3.3k | $13k (exactly $13,047) | Stone/Spark Games |
| | Bike Rush | older | $4.99 | 61 44% | 1.8k | $9.1k (exactly $9,132) | Axyos Games |
 | CASE RECORDS: Lost Night | $4.99 | 56 46% | 1.7k | $8.4k (exactly $8,383) | Walnut LLC | |
 | Death Elevator | older | $7.99 | 25 84% | 750 | $6.0k (exactly $5,992) | Games From The Abyss |
 | The Godfeather : A Mafia Pigeon Saga | older | $9.99 | 16 100% | 480 | $4.8k (exactly $4,795) | Hojo Studio |
 | The Black Pepper Crew | · EA older | $6.99 | 20 95% | 600 | $4.2k (exactly $4,194) | Quijipixel Games |
 | Amber Alert TOTAL VR | $5.99 | 19 47% | 570 | $3.4k (exactly $3,414) | MEATBREAD, VirtualVillain | |
 | Circus of the Moon | $5.99 | 12 91% | 360 | $2.2k (exactly $2,156) | Davter17 | |
 | RedLantern | 赤提灯 | $4.99 | 9 66% | 270 | $1.3k (exactly $1,347) | KM Studios | |
 | Look At Me | $4.99 | 8 62% | 240 | $1.2k (exactly $1,198) | Silly Tiger | |
 | Convict Team Tactics | $2.99 | 13 92% | 390 | $1.2k (exactly $1,166) | Asocial Guarantee | |
 | Mishaka Ubivaka | $2.99 | 10 100% | 300 | $897 (exactly $897) | Low Res | |
 | Second Chance at a Billion | $10.00 | 2 50% | 60 | $600 (exactly $600) | ElderYew | |
 | Crystal of Death | · EA | $5.99 | 3 100% | 90 | $539 (exactly $539) | Coderade Games |
 | 生计与沉冤 | $3.99 | 3 66% | 90 | $359 (exactly $359) | XGame游戏工作室 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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