Do I ship it?

Games › Space Sim › Space Sim + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Space Sim?

Space Sim + Crafting

Of 50 developers who shipped a Crafting Space Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 150 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $2.3M, ×3748 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 150 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 150 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Space Sim + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 50
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $17k → $1.2k → $1.8k → $1.8k → $9.4k → $2.9k → $898 (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Space Sim + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 50
Bottom 30% $838 (exactly $838)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 25% $32k (exactly $32,357)
Top 5% $2.4M (exactly $2,353,615)
Developers, 2 yr 50
Released games 153
Announced 150
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Space Sim, Crafting; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Open World, Sandbox
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 22,410 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $840, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $2.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $840. 8 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 150 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Space Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DestructionFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair9 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + Tactical RPGFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + WarFair34 devs · median $1.3k · 42 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorFair16 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  6. + SportsFair8 devs · median $479 · 9 announced
  7. + DiplomacyLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  8. + MilitaryPoor odds18 devs · median $6.3k · 39 announced
  9. + Online Co-OpPoor odds18 devs · median $4.9k · 63 announced
  10. + Strategy RPGPoor odds8 devs · median $4.9k · 21 announced
  11. + SandboxPoor odds86 devs · median $4.6k · 213 announced
  12. + Colony SimPoor odds42 devs · median $4.6k · 91 announced

All 114 pairs on the Space Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M Empyrion - Galactic Survival 2020 · $18M Starbase 2021 · EA · $6.5M Space Engineers 2 2025 · EA · $4.6M Planetbase 2015 · $4.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
Empyrion - Galactic Survival older $19.99 29,204 78% 876k $18M (exactly $17,513,639) Eleon Game Studios
Starbase · EA older $34.99 6,217 56% 187k $6.5M (exactly $6,525,985) Frozenbyte
Space Engineers 2 · EA $29.99 5,095 74% 153k $4.6M (exactly $4,583,972) Keen Software House
Planetbase older $14.99 9,558 79% 287k $4.3M (exactly $4,298,233) Madruga Works
Spaceflight Simulator · EA older $14.99 9,431 96% 283k $4.2M (exactly $4,241,121) Team Curiosity ✦
SpaceBourne 2 $19.99 4,951 75% 149k $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) Burak Dabak
Star Valor older $24.99 3,272 88% 98k $2.5M (exactly $2,453,018) Rafael Burgos
SpaceCraft · EA $29.99 2,616 64% 78k $2.4M (exactly $2,353,615) Shiro Games
Astrometica · EA $19.99 2,912 82% 87k $1.7M (exactly $1,746,326) BeryMery
Astro Colony $19.99 2,397 80% 72k $1.4M (exactly $1,437,481) Terad Games
Farlands $17.99 1,628 89% 49k $879k (exactly $878,632) JanduSoft, Eric Rodríguez
Blossom: The Seed of Life $16.99 1,011 88% 30k $515k (exactly $515,307) Pebbledust Games
Approaching Infinity $17.99 723 95% 22k $390k (exactly $390,203) IBOL
Space Trash Scavenger $19.99 512 82% 15k $307k (exactly $307,046) SquarePlay Games
Vanguard Galaxy · EA $8.99 565 90% 17k $152k (exactly $152,380) Bat Roost Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.