Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Shooter?

Shooter + Crafting

Of 156 developers who shipped a Crafting Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 366 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $570; 1 in 20 cleared $4.1M, ×6638 the market median. Revenue is up 380% on the market; 366 games are announced against 92 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 380% on the market, 366 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 156
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $2.2k → $719 → $599 → $2.1k → $5.3k → $4.8k (still earning) → $5.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 156
Bottom 30% $570 (exactly $570)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,697)
Top 25% $67k (exactly $66,723)
Top 5% $4.2M (exactly $4,168,515)
Developers, 2 yr 156
Released games 425
Announced 366
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 380% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter, Crafting; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Survival, Open World
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 688,942 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $570, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $66k, 1 in 20 over $4.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $570. 7 in 10 of the 69 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 366 games are announced against 92 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Warhammer 40,000: Darktide older $39.99 108,477 72% 3.3M $130M (exactly $130,139,857) Fatshark
Far Cry 3 older $19.99 122,691 87% 3.7M $74M (exactly $73,577,793) Ubisoft Montreal, Massive Entertainment… (Ubisoft Montreal, Massive Entertainment, and Ubisoft Shanghai)
Far Cry® 4 older $29.99 68,485 84% 2.1M $62M (exactly $61,615,954) Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Shanghai,… (Ubisoft Montreal, Red Storm, Shanghai, Toronto, Kiev)
Far Cry® 6 older $59.99 33,280 71% 998k $60M (exactly $59,894,016) Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubis… (Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Berlin)
Foxhole older $29.99 47,330 79% 1.4M $43M (exactly $42,582,801) Siege Camp
Far Cry® Primal older $29.99 38,798 86% 1.2M $35M (exactly $34,906,561) Ubisoft
Deadside $24.99 34,560 76% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,909,632) Bad Pixel
MISERY $12.99 20,015 85% 600k $7.8M (exactly $7,799,846) Platypus Entertainment
StarRupture · EA $19.99 12,333 80% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,396,100) Creepy Jar
HumanitZ $19.99 11,155 74% 335k $6.7M (exactly $6,689,653) Yodubzz Studios
The Front $19.99 9,555 66% 287k $5.7M (exactly $5,730,134) Samar Studio
Longvinter $19.99 6,951 68% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,168,515) Uuvana Studios
PIONER · EA $29.99 3,205 62% 96k $2.9M (exactly $2,883,538) GFAGAMES
Age of Water $29.99 2,883 72% 86k $2.6M (exactly $2,593,835) Three Whales Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.