Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Cooking

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cooking Survival game?

Survival + Cooking

Of 56 developers who shipped a Cooking Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 126 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.5k, ×5.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $740k, ×1192 the market median. Revenue is up 245% on the market; 126 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 245% on the market, 126 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Cooking
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 56
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $192k → $6.7k → $35k → $3.4k → $2.2k → $4.2k → $4.0k (still earning) → $5.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Cooking: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 56
Bottom 30% $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Median $3.5k (exactly $3,507)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $23,802)
Top 5% $749k (exactly $748,760)
Developers, 2 yr 56
Released games 120
Announced 126
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 245% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Cooking
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Cooking; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 9,871 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $3.5k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $740k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 8 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 126 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stranded: Alien Dawn older $34.99 9,715 84% 291k $10M (exactly $10,197,836) Haemimont Games
One Hour One Life older $14.99 3,988 79% 120k $1.8M (exactly $1,793,404) Jason Rohrer
Saleblazers · EA older $29.99 1,974 78% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,008) AIRSTRAFE INTERACTIVE
Winter Burrow $19.99 2,838 89% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,701,949) Pine Creek Games
Grimshire · EA $14.99 3,243 97% 97k $1.5M (exactly $1,458,377) Acute Owl Studio
Sailwind · EA older $19.99 2,312 89% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,386,506) Raw Lion Workshop
UNDYING - "KINGDOM" older $19.99 1,688 78% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,012,294) Vanimals
Among Trees older $14.99 2,071 68% 62k $931k (exactly $931,329) FJRD Interactive
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Denizen · EA older $19.99 886 72% 27k $531k (exactly $531,334) Departure Interactive
OxyRail · EA $14.99 949 80% 28k $427k (exactly $426,765) OxygenTech Limited
Winter Survival $18.99 595 62% 18k $339k (exactly $338,972) DRAGO entertainment
DYSPLACED · EA $24.99 296 87% 8.9k $222k (exactly $221,911) 10tons Ltd
Project: Mist · EA $17.99 257 72% 7.7k $139k (exactly $138,703) Chicken Launcher
Pizza Bandit · EA $24.99 185 82% 5.6k $139k (exactly $138,694) JOFSOFT
Kentum $17.99 172 75% 5.2k $93k (exactly $92,828) Tlön Industries
Anime City · EA $14.99 201 72% 6.0k $90k (exactly $90,390) Shoujo City Developer

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.