Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based Strategy › Turn-Based Strategy + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Turn-Based Strategy?

Turn-Based Strategy + Collectathon

Of 22 developers who shipped a Collectathon Turn-Based Strategy in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $32k, ×52 the market median. Revenue is up 125% on the market; 47 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 125% on the market, 47 announced, ×5.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Strategy + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $27k → $1.8k → $15k → $599 → $6.3k → $899 (still earning) → $628 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Strategy + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $6.3k (exactly $6,294)
Top 5% $32k (exactly $32,346)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 66
Announced 47
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 125% on the market, supply 35% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Strategy, Collectathon; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Choices Matter, Roguelite
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 562 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $720, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $32k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + WuxiaFair12 devs · median $19k · 17 announced
  2. + Cold WarFair18 devs · median $9.9k · 22 announced
  3. + RomeFair15 devs · median $9.0k · 18 announced
  4. + LootFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  5. + MiningFair10 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  6. + DwarvesFair7 devs · median $3.7k · 12 announced
  7. + IdlerFair50 devs · median $3.6k · 45 announced
  8. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  9. + TanksFair25 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  10. + SokobanFair11 devs · median $2.1k · 11 announced
  11. + Top-Down ShooterFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  12. + SpaceFair107 devs · median $1.5k · 143 announced

All 187 pairs on the Turn-Based Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Crystal Project 2022 · $1.1M Siralim 3 2018 · $396k HyperRogue 2015 · $121k Dragon Spirits 2023 · $87k Siralim 2015 · $60k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crystal Project older $13.99 2,510 91% 75k $1.1M (exactly $1,053,447) Andrew Willman
Siralim 3 older $14.99 881 94% 26k $396k (exactly $396,186) Thylacine Studios
HyperRogue older $9.99 404 97% 12k $121k (exactly $121,079) Zeno Rogue
Dragon Spirits older $9.99 289 86% 8.7k $87k (exactly $86,613) FHNBHJ
Siralim older $9.99 201 83% 6.0k $60k (exactly $60,240) Thylacine Studios
Dragon Spirits 2 older $13.99 137 84% 4.1k $57k (exactly $57,499) FHNBHJ
Tomomon $14.99 126 70% 3.8k $57k (exactly $56,662) ManicBuild Studio
Tokaido older $11.99 147 68% 4.4k $53k (exactly $52,876) Funforge
Control Craft 2 older $4.99 274 72% 8.2k $41k (exactly $41,018) Cristian Manolachi, Atomic Fabrik
Alchemist Tris's Desire older $18.99 69 84% 2.1k $39k (exactly $39,309) kagurado
Gold and Graves $5.99 180 86% 5.4k $32k (exactly $32,346) Yoon
RoGlass $9.99 88 98% 2.6k $26k (exactly $26,374) James Castle
Sainthood $9.99 50 94% 1.5k $15k (exactly $14,985) Sainthood Project
Idle Kitty $4.99 64 82% 1.9k $9.6k (exactly $9,581) 狮子
Skulker $9.99 21 80% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) Krow Game
Brominion $7.99 11 100% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) Hyralism
Haulin' Oats $9.99 7 100% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) Gramps Games
Number Stomper $4.99 11 100% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) James Castle
Vault of the Vanquished · EA $7.99 4 100% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Broken Flame Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.