Do I ship it?

GamesStrategy RPGStrategy RPG + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Collectathon

Of 27 developers who shipped a Collectathon Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 45 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $64k, ×102 the market median. Revenue is up 560% on the market; 45 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 560% on the market, 45 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $0 → $52k → $479 → $2.6k → $5.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,294)
Top 5% $64k (exactly $64,136)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 61
Announced 45
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 560% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG, Collectathon; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Idler, RPG, Creature Collector
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 1,069 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $64k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 6 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 45 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Siralim Ultimate older $19.99 2,145 92% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,286,356) Thylacine Studios
Siralim 3 older $14.99 881 94% 26k $396k (exactly $396,186) Thylacine Studios
LABYRINTH OF TOUHOU - GENSOKYO AND THE HEAVEN-PIERCING TREE older $29.99 363 89% 11k $327k (exactly $326,591) Nise-Eikoku Studio, CUBETYPE
Siralim 2 older $14.99 427 92% 13k $192k (exactly $192,022) Thylacine Studios
Cultivation Magic World · EA $12.99 276 78% 8.3k $108k (exactly $107,557) DMG Studio
Thousand Floors $9.99 214 41% 6.4k $64k (exactly $64,136) 琥珀塔
Tomomon $14.99 126 70% 3.8k $57k (exactly $56,662) ManicBuild Studio
XiuzhenWorld2 $12.99 134 67% 4.0k $52k (exactly $52,220) Noforgetit
Scrapping Simulator · EA older $12.99 59 93% 1.8k $23k (exactly $22,992) DefectGaming
神魔山海经 Gods Monster $11.99 57 59% 1.7k $21k (exactly $20,503) 红尘背包客
Glimvale : My Mini Overworld $5.99 100 92% 3.0k $18k (exactly $17,970) Milkshake Games
尸来运转-Lucky Zombie Survival $3.99 86 86% 2.6k $10k (exactly $10,294) Kwing works
Schoolgirl Card Pull Simulator $6.99 34 61% 1.0k $7.1k (exactly $7,130) Violet Soft
Ultimate Blacksmith Tycoon ~The Appraiser-Shopkeeper Conquers the Blacksmith Trade~ · EA $14.99 15 80% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) Quench Forge
Isekai Mage Girl Gacha Pull Simulator: Elemental Card Collection $6.99 27 74% 810 $5.7k (exactly $5,662) Violet Soft

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.