Do I ship it?

GamesSpace SimSpace Sim + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Space Sim?

Space Sim + Collectathon

Only 9 developers shipped a Collectathon Space Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Farlands, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $870k, ×1399 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 19 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 19 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Space Sim + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Space Sim + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,615)
Top 25% $6.3k (exactly $6,294)
Top 5% $879k (exactly $878,632)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 29
Announced 19
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Space Sim
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Space Sim, Collectathon
Price point
$3.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $13.99 or above; the middle game at $2.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 3,653 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $870k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Space Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DestructionFair14 devs · median $3.7k · 22 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair9 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + Tactical RPGFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + WarFair34 devs · median $1.3k · 42 announced
  5. + Walking SimulatorFair16 devs · median $598 · 20 announced
  6. + SportsFair8 devs · median $479 · 9 announced
  7. + DiplomacyLong shot7 devs · median $360 · 14 announced
  8. + MilitaryPoor odds18 devs · median $6.3k · 39 announced
  9. + Online Co-OpPoor odds18 devs · median $4.9k · 63 announced
  10. + Strategy RPGPoor odds8 devs · median $4.9k · 21 announced
  11. + SandboxPoor odds86 devs · median $4.6k · 213 announced
  12. + Colony SimPoor odds42 devs · median $4.6k · 91 announced

All 114 pairs on the Space Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Farlands $17.99 1,628 89% 49k $879k (exactly $878,632) JanduSoft, Eric Rodríguez
Galactic Mining Corp older $12.99 868 84% 26k $338k (exactly $338,260) Windybeard
Digger: Galactic Treasures $4.99 711 87% 21k $106k (exactly $106,437) RainStyle games
Insiders older $13.99 40 80% 1.2k $17k (exactly $16,788) ANG People s.r.o.
The Last Hope older $1.99 268 46% 8.0k $16k (exactly $16,000) Balti Calarasi
Space Ribbon - Slipstream to the Extreme older $3.99 71 57% 2.1k $8.5k (exactly $8,499) Onteca Ltd
Accretion $9.99 21 38% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) ValarFerys
Metapilot older $19.99 10 70% 300 $6.0k (exactly $5,997) neurobotx, www.neurobotx.ai
My Idle Space Cruiser $2.99 24 83% 720 $2.2k (exactly $2,153) Minicactus Games
Periphery Synthetic older $4.99 12 100% 360 $1.8k (exactly $1,796) shiftBacktick
Stellar Industrialist $2.99 18 88% 540 $1.6k (exactly $1,615) PcZ Games
Sad Virus Space $2.99 3 66% 90 $269 (exactly $269) DIG Games
Only Up To Space $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) Mascot Bro Studio, PixelHixel Games
Warping War Pig $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) bankbank
SMBH : Super Massive Black Hole $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) てづくりギンガ

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.