Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + Mythology

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mythological Collectathon game?

Collectathon + Mythology

Only 18 developers shipped a Mythological Collectathon game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Digimon Story Time Stranger, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $150. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 20 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 20 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + Mythology
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $750 → $6.0k → $1.5k → $838 → $80k → $4.3k → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + Mythology: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Top 25% $78k (exactly $77,969)
Top 5% $33M (exactly $33,269,746)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 49
Announced 20
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Mythology
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Collectathon; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action RPG, Action-Adventure
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 16,919 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $77k, 1 in 20 over $33M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 7 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  11. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced
  12. + ModernFair22 devs · median $2.2k · 21 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Digimon Story Time Stranger $69.99 15,845 89% 475k $33M (exactly $33,269,746) Media.Vision Inc.
Isles of Sea and Sky older $19.99 1,538 91% 46k $922k (exactly $922,339) Cicada Games
Samurai Bringer older $9.99 1,012 87% 30k $303k (exactly $303,296) ALPHAWING Inc.
Super Kiwi 64 older $2.99 1,805 95% 54k $162k (exactly $161,908) Siactro
Tiny Thor older $19.99 207 79% 6.2k $124k (exactly $124,138) Asylum Square
Skábma™ - Snowfall older $19.99 191 81% 5.7k $115k (exactly $114,543) Red Stage Entertainment
Cultivation Magic World · EA $12.99 276 78% 8.3k $108k (exactly $107,557) DMG Studio
The Girl from Arkanya $19.99 153 92% 4.6k $92k (exactly $91,754) Arkanya Games
Mosaic of The Pharaohs $8.99 297 92% 8.9k $80k (exactly $80,101) Mark Ffrench
Mythwrecked: Ambrosia Island $24.99 104 93% 3.1k $78k (exactly $77,969) Polygon Treehouse
XiuzhenWorld2 $12.99 134 67% 4.0k $52k (exactly $52,220) Noforgetit
Knock on Fate:The Guardian Pusher $5.99 58 87% 1.7k $10k (exactly $10,423) 刚正面的红领巾
The Hundred Youkai Master $11.99 12 75% 360 $4.3k (exactly $4,316) OCG S studio, OCG FCGD Division
Arrows and Antiquity $4.99 16 87% 480 $2.4k (exactly $2,395) True Neutral Studios
Where's my Bara Deck? $1.99 24 87% 720 $1.4k (exactly $1,433) Kopon Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.