Do I ship it?

GamesCollectathonCollectathon + LGBTQ+

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an LGBTQ+ Collectathon game?

Collectathon + LGBTQ+

Of 27 developers who shipped an LGBTQ+ Collectathon game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 45 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $600k, ×1274 the market median. Revenue is up 1695% on the market; 45 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 1695% on the market, 45 announced, ×3.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Collectathon + LGBTQ+
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.7k → $2.9k → $2.1k → $748 → $1.2k → $48k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Collectathon + LGBTQ+: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $40k (exactly $39,916)
Top 5% $605k (exactly $605,375)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 79
Announced 45
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1695% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
LGBTQ+
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Collectathon; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Simulation, 3D Platformer
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, 3D, Cozy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 97% positive over 60,185 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $39k, 1 in 20 over $600k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 45 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Collectathon with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds33 devs · median $33k · 42 announced
  2. + CapitalismStrong odds76 devs · median $6.2k · 75 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  4. + EconomyFair125 devs · median $3.8k · 151 announced
  5. + ManagementFair182 devs · median $3.5k · 230 announced
  6. + CrimeFair10 devs · median $3.4k · 14 announced
  7. + Level EditorFair15 devs · median $3.4k · 17 announced
  8. + Artificial IntelligenceFair46 devs · median $2.7k · 30 announced
  9. + SokobanFair12 devs · median $2.4k · 9 announced
  10. + MythologyFair18 devs · median $2.4k · 20 announced
  11. + UnderwaterFair37 devs · median $2.3k · 37 announced
  12. + Combat RacingFair10 devs · median $2.2k · 12 announced

All 178 pairs on the Collectathon page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WEBFISHING $4.99 57,353 97% 1.7M $8.6M (exactly $8,585,744) lamedeveloper
Lil Gator Game older $19.99 4,511 98% 135k $2.7M (exactly $2,705,247) MegaWobble
Here Comes Niko! older $24.99 1,050 92% 32k $787k (exactly $787,185) Frog Vibes
Mosaique Neko Waifus 4 older $4.99 4,255 94% 128k $637k (exactly $636,974) Lil Hentai Games
Funi Raccoon Game $11.99 1,683 99% 50k $605k (exactly $605,375) Crayon, Kit
Mosaique Neko Waifus 2 older $4.99 2,563 94% 77k $384k (exactly $383,681) Lil Hentai Games
Mosaique Neko Waifus 3 older $4.99 1,840 94% 55k $275k (exactly $275,448) Lil Hentai Games
Mosaique Neko Waifus 5 older $5.99 1,328 93% 40k $239k (exactly $238,642) Lil Hentai Games
Monster Crown older $9.99 677 65% 20k $203k (exactly $202,897) Studio Aurum
Kardboard Kings: Card Shop Simulator older $19.99 325 73% 9.8k $195k (exactly $194,902) Henry's House, Oscar Brittain, Rob Gross
Bugaboo Pocket $19.99 300 86% 9.0k $180k (exactly $179,910) Elytra Games
The August Before $11.99 309 92% 9.3k $111k (exactly $111,147) Silly Little Games
Misc. A Tiny Tale $19.99 112 99% 3.4k $67k (exactly $67,166) Tinyware Games
Elvenfoundry $34.99 46 67% 1.4k $48k (exactly $48,286) SunbathGames
Jumping Jazz Cats $8.99 148 74% 4.4k $40k (exactly $39,916) Le Catnip Collective
Angel Essence $4.99 177 99% 5.3k $26k (exactly $26,497) g3bsoft
1000 Deaths (Thousand Deaths) $14.99 33 87% 990 $15k (exactly $14,840) Pariah Interactive, Inc.
Capy Castaway $19.99 24 70% 720 $14k (exactly $14,393) Kitten Cup Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.